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Job Displacement during the Great Recession: Tight Bounds on Distributional Treatment Effect Parameters using Panel Data

Author

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  • Brantly Callaway

    (Department of Economics, Temple University)

Abstract

Late prime-age workers who were displaced during the Great Recession lost on average 39% of their earnings relative to their counterfactual earnings had they not been displaced. But the average effect masks substantial heterogeneity across workers. This paper develops new techniques to bound distributional treatment effect parameters that depend on the joint distribution of potential outcomes -- an object not identified by standard identifying assumptions such as selection on observables or even when treatment is randomly assigned. I show that panel data and an additional assumption on the dependence between untreated potential outcomes for the treated group over time (i) provide more identifying power for distributional treatment effect parameters than existing bounds and (ii) provide a more plausible set of conditions than existing methods that obtain point identification.

Suggested Citation

  • Brantly Callaway, 2017. "Job Displacement during the Great Recession: Tight Bounds on Distributional Treatment Effect Parameters using Panel Data," DETU Working Papers 1703, Department of Economics, Temple University.
    • Handle: RePEc:tem:wpaper:1703
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    File URL: http://www.cla.temple.edu/RePEc/documents/DETU_17_03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Leora Friedberg & Michael T. Owyang & Wei Sun & Anthony Webb, 2017. "How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(3), pages 259-278.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Joint Distribution of Potential Outcomes; Distribution of the Treatment Effect; Quantile of the Treatment Effect; Copula Stability Assumption; Panel Data; Job Displacement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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