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Credit Default Swaps Drawup Networks: Too Tied To Be Stable?

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  • Rahul Kaushik
  • Stefano Battiston

Abstract

\begin{abstract} We analyse time series of CDS spreads for a set of major US and European institutions on a period overlapping the recent financial crisis. We extend the existing methodology of \emph{$\varepsilon$-drawdowns} to the one of \emph{joint $\varepsilon$-drawups}, in order to estimate the conditional probabilities of abrupt co-movements among spreads. We correct for randomness and for finite size effects and we find statistically significant probabilities of joint drawups for many pairs of CDS. We also find significant probabilities of trend reinforcement, i.e. drawups in a given CDS followed by drawups in the same CDS. Finally, we take the matrix of probability of joint drawups as an estimate of the network of financial dependencies among institutions. We then carry out a network analysis that provides insights into the role of systemically important financial institutions. \end{abstract}

Suggested Citation

  • Rahul Kaushik & Stefano Battiston, "undated". "Credit Default Swaps Drawup Networks: Too Tied To Be Stable?," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-013, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  • Handle: RePEc:stz:wpaper:eth-rc-12-013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    2. Rahul Kaushik & Stefano Battiston, "undated". "Credit Default Swaps Drawup Networks: Too Tied To Be Stable?," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-013, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
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    7. Caldarelli, Guido, 2007. "Scale-Free Networks: Complex Webs in Nature and Technology," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199211517.
    8. Battiston, Stefano & Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Default cascades: When does risk diversification increase stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 138-149.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriele Tedeschi & Amin Mazloumian & Mauro Gallegati & Dirk Helbing, 2012. "Bankruptcy Cascades in Interbank Markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-10, December.
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    3. Brechmann, Eike C. & Hendrich, Katharina & Czado, Claudia, 2013. "Conditional copula simulation for systemic risk stress testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 722-732.
    4. Andreas Joseph & Stephan Joseph & Guanrong Chen, 2013. "Cross-border Portfolio Investment Networks and Indicators for Financial Crises," Papers 1306.0215, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2014.
    5. Berardi, Simone & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2017. "From banks' strategies to financial (in)stability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 255-272.
    6. Rahul Kaushik & Stefano Battiston, "undated". "Credit Default Swaps Drawup Networks: Too Tied To Be Stable?," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-013, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    7. Pourkhanali, Armin & Kim, Jong-Min & Tafakori, Laleh & Fard, Farzad Alavi, 2016. "Measuring systemic risk using vine-copula," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 63-74.
    8. Leonidas Sandoval Junior, 2014. "Dynamics in two networks based on stocks of the US stock market," Papers 1408.1728, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2014.

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