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Credit Default Swaps Drawup Networks: Too Tied To Be Stable?

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  • Rahul Kaushik
  • Stefano Battiston

Abstract

We analyse time series of CDS spreads for a set of major US and European institutions on a pe- riod overlapping the recent financial crisis. We extend the existing methodology of {\epsilon}-drawdowns to the one of joint {\epsilon}-drawups, in order to estimate the conditional probabilities of abrupt co-movements among spreads. We correct for randomness and for finite size effects and we find significant prob- ability of joint drawups for certain pairs of CDS. We also find significant probability of trend rein- forcement, i.e. drawups in a given CDS followed by drawups in the same CDS. Finally, we take the matrix of probability of joint drawups as an estimate of the network of financial dependencies among institutions. We then carry out a network analysis that provides insights into the role of systemically important financial institutions.

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  • Rahul Kaushik & Stefano Battiston, 2012. "Credit Default Swaps Drawup Networks: Too Tied To Be Stable?," Papers 1205.0976, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1205.0976
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    1. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    2. Rahul Kaushik & Stefano Battiston, "undated". "Credit Default Swaps Drawup Networks: Too Tied To Be Stable?," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-013, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
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    7. Caldarelli, Guido, 2007. "Scale-Free Networks: Complex Webs in Nature and Technology," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199211517.
    8. Battiston, Stefano & Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Default cascades: When does risk diversification increase stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 138-149.
    9. L. Kullmann & J. Kertesz & K. Kaski, 2002. "Time dependent cross correlations between different stock returns: A directed network of influence," Papers cond-mat/0203256, arXiv.org, revised May 2002.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pourkhanali, Armin & Kim, Jong-Min & Tafakori, Laleh & Fard, Farzad Alavi, 2016. "Measuring systemic risk using vine-copula," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 63-74.
    2. Rahul Kaushik & Stefano Battiston, "undated". "Credit Default Swaps Drawup Networks: Too Tied To Be Stable?," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-013, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    3. Gabriele Tedeschi & Amin Mazloumian & Mauro Gallegati & Dirk Helbing, 2012. "Bankruptcy Cascades in Interbank Markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Stefania Vitali & Stefano Battiston, 2014. "The Community Structure of the Global Corporate Network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-13, August.
    5. Berardi, Simone & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2017. "From banks' strategies to financial (in)stability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 255-272.
    6. Brechmann, Eike C. & Hendrich, Katharina & Czado, Claudia, 2013. "Conditional copula simulation for systemic risk stress testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 722-732.
    7. Andreas Joseph & Stephan Joseph & Guanrong Chen, 2013. "Cross-border Portfolio Investment Networks and Indicators for Financial Crises," Papers 1306.0215, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2014.
    8. Leonidas Sandoval Junior, 2014. "Dynamics in two networks based on stocks of the US stock market," Papers 1408.1728, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2014.

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