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Inflow Uncertainty in Hydropower Markets

In order to analyse the consequences of uncertainty for prices and efficiency in a hydropower system, we apply a two-period model with uncertainty in water inflow. We study three different market structures, perfect competition, monopoly and oligopoly and stress the importance of the shape of the demand function under different distributions of water inflow. The uncertainty element creates possibilities of exercising market power depending on the distribution of uncertainty among producers. The introduction of thermal power into the hydropower market has an impact on the residual demand function, which is important for the hydropower producers' possibilities of exercising market power.

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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 520.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:520
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  1. Garcia, Alfredo & Reitzes, James D & Stacchetti, Ennio, 2001. "Strategic Pricing when Electricity is Storable," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 223-47, November.
  2. Bushnell, James & Wolfram, Catherine, 2008. "Electricity Markets," Staff General Research Papers 31547, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Green, Richard & Newbery, David M G, 1991. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Von der Fehr, N.H.M. & Harbord, D., 1992. "Spot Market Competition in the UK Electricity Industry," Memorandum 09/1992, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  5. Loury, Glenn C, 1978. "The Optimal Exploitation of an Unknown Reserve," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 621-36, October.
  6. Crampes, C. & Moreaux, M., 2001. "Water resource and power generation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 975-997, May.
  7. Pindyck, Robert S, 1980. "Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1203-25, December.
  8. Bjerkholt, Olav & Olsen, Oystein, 1984. "Uncertainty in hydroelectric power supply," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 159-166, July.
  9. Cardell, Judith B. & Hitt, Carrie Cullen & Hogan, William W., 1997. "Market power and strategic interaction in electricity networks," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 109-137, March.
  10. Cairns, Robert D, 1990. " The Economics of Exploration for Non-renewable Resources," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 361-95.
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