IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/511.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Industry restructuring, OPEC response - and oil price formation

Author

Listed:
  • Finn Roar Aune

    ()

  • Klaus Mohn
  • Petter Osmundsen
  • Knut Einar Rosendahl

    (Statistics Norway)

Abstract

Increased focus on shareholder returns, capital discipline and return on capital employed (RoACE) caused a slowdown in investment rates and production growth among international oil companies around the turn of the century. Focusing on supply side dynamics of the oil market, we explore a hypothesis that the restructuring in the international oil industry towards the end of the 1990s had long-lived effects on OPEC strategies - and on oil price formation. Based on a partial equilibrium model for the global oil market, we examine the effects of the industry restructuring on oil supply and oil prices, compared with a counterfactual reference scenario characterised by industrial stability and unchanged price ambitions within OPEC. A key result is that important factors behind the currently high oil price can be traced back to the industrial restructuring and to the Asian economic crisis. This suggests that temporary economic and financial shocks may have a long-term impact on oil price formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Finn Roar Aune & Klaus Mohn & Petter Osmundsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2007. "Industry restructuring, OPEC response - and oil price formation," Discussion Papers 511, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:511
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp511.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. Reiss, 1990. "Economic and Financial Determinants of Oil and Gas Exploration Activity," NBER Chapters,in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 181-206 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. James L. Smith, 2005. "Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 51-82.
    3. Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-593, September.
    4. Gang Liu, 2004. "Estimating Energy Demand Elasticities for OECD Countries. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Discussion Papers 373, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Osmundsen, Petter & Mohn, Klaus & Misund, Bard & Asche, Frank, 2007. "Is oil supply choked by financial market pressures?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 467-474, January.
    6. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    7. Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "The Global Natural Gas Market: Will Transport Cost Reductions Lead to Lower Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-40.
    8. Sabine Bockem, 2004. "Cartel formation and oligopoly structure: a new assessment of the crude oil market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1355-1369.
    9. Weston, J. Fred & Johnson, Brian A. & Siu, Juan A., 1999. "Mergers and restructuring in the world oil industry," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 149-183.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lars Lindholt & Solveig Glomsrød, 2011. "The role of the Arctic in future global petroleum supply," Discussion Papers 645, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Mohn, Klaus, 2009. "Elastic Oil. A primer on the economics of exploration and production," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/10, University of Stavanger.
    3. Lindholt, Lars & Glomsrød, Solveig, 2012. "The Arctic: No big bonanza for the global petroleum industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1465-1474.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil market; investment behaviour; market power; equilibrium model;

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (L Maasø) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbgvno.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.