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Sensibilité du taux de change aux chocs monétaires et budgétaires: Une analyse en termes de VAR des fluctuations euro/dollar

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  • Christophe Blot

Abstract

L’objectif de cet article est d’évaluer empiriquement la dynamique du taux de change euro/dollar consécutive aux chocs monétaires et budgétaires. Ce faisant, nous cherchons à identifier les mécanismes de transmission des chocs afin de discriminer entre les différentes approches théoriques qui peuvent être proposées. Nous adoptons une démarche en termes de VAR et analysons la robustesse des fonctions de réponse. En effet, les résultats de ce type de simulations sont généralement sensibles à l’ordre des variables du VAR ainsi qu’à la méthode d’identification des innovations structurelles. Il semble alors qu’une dépréciation de l’euro peut être observée à la suite de chocs expansionnistes de politique monétaire et budgétaire. Ces conclusions sont robustes et ne dépendent pas du cadre retenu. Par contre, il est possible de montrer que le surajustement retardé, habituellement mis en évidence dans la littérature empirique, est sensible au choix des contraintes identifiantes. Certaines configurations permettent en effet de faire ressortir un surajustement immédiat plus conforme à l’intuition théorique. Par ailleurs, même si les mécanismes de transmission des chocs budgétaires sont ambigus, une explication en termes de modèle de choix de portefeuille semble la plus convaincante.

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  • Christophe Blot, 2005. "Sensibilité du taux de change aux chocs monétaires et budgétaires: Une analyse en termes de VAR des fluctuations euro/dollar," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2368, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2368
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