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Inflation and Labor Migration: Modelling the Venezuelan Case

Author

Listed:
  • Ademir Rocha

  • Cleomar Gomes da Silva

  • Fernando Perobelli

Abstract

The Venezuelan hyperinflation process has caused serious economic and social consequences. The wave of migrants and refugees fleeing the country is one of the most obvious and important faces of the problem. The objective of this paper is to develop a model that can explain labor migration flow from changes in price level and apply it to the Venezuelan reality. We make use of a theoreticalmethodological framework related to the New Economic Geography. Results from our model's simulations show that, in the short run (1-year simulation horizon), Venezuelan industrial and agricultural workers will tend to migrate to nearby countries, such as Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador and Peru. However, in the long run (10-year simulation horizon), agents seem to decide based on real wage differential. This explains why industrial workers have a propensity to migrate to Chile, Panama, Peru and Mexico, while agricultural workers have an incentive to move to Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademir Rocha & Cleomar Gomes da Silva & Fernando Perobelli, 2020. "Inflation and Labor Migration: Modelling the Venezuelan Case," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2020_05, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2020wpecon5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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