IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sbp/wpaper/66.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A New Measure of Core Inflation in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Riaz Riazuddin

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Amin Khan Lodhi

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Ashfaq

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Behzad Ali Ahmad

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract

We propose a new method of permanently excluding relatively volatile commodities from CPI basket in Pakistan. This is achieved by making use of trimming approach on past data on monthly CPI changes to isolate a Relatively Stable Component of CPI (RSC-CPI) as a new measure of core inflation. This method ensures inclusion of both food and non-food commodities that show persistent price behavior in Pakistan. Three alternative core inflation series based on this new approach and four other core measures based on existing methodology have been evaluated. RSC-CPI based measures of core inflation are found to be the best in terms of desirable properties proposed by Marques et al (2003) for a core inflation measure and various relative performance indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Riaz Riazuddin & Muhammad Amin Khan Lodhi & Muhammad Ashfaq & Behzad Ali Ahmad, 2013. "A New Measure of Core Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 66, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:66
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sbp.org.pk/repec/sbp/wpaper/wp66.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2013
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad Amin Khan Lodhi, 2007. "Evaluating Core Inflation Measures in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 18, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    2. Alan K. Detmeister, 2012. "What should core inflation exclude?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Michael Pedersen, 2006. "An Alternative Measure of Core Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 366, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July.
    5. Mr. James P Walsh, 2011. "Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2011/071, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Javaid Iqbal & Syed Hamza Ali & Muhammad Abdus Salam, 2020. "Denoised Inflation: A New Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(2), pages 131-154.
    2. Zafar Hayat & Saher Masood, 2022. "Inflation Targeting Skepticism: Myth or Reality? A Way Forward for Pakistan (Article)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 1-27.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Md Shahiduzzaman, 2009. "Measuring Core Inflation in Bangladesh: The Choice of Alternative Methods," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 32(1), pages 23-44.
    2. Andrade, Isabel & O'Brien, Raymond, 2007. "A measure of core inflation in the UK," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0708, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    3. Siami-Namini, Sima & Hudson, Darren & Trindade, A. Alexandre & Lyford, Conrad, 2018. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and the Taylor Rule," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266719, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Robert Dixon & G.C. Lim, 2004. "Underlying Inflation in Australia: Are the Existing Measures Satisfactory?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 373-386, December.
    5. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Amjad Ali, 2017. "Threshold Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 1-19.
    6. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2005. "Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Dridi, Jemma & Unsal, Filiz D. & Williams, Oral H., 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 71-84.
    8. Rahul Anand & Naresh Kumar & Mr. Volodymyr Tulin, 2016. "Understanding India’s Food Inflation: The Role of Demand and Supply Factors," IMF Working Papers 2016/002, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Todd E. Clark, 2001. "Comparing measures of core inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 86(Q II), pages 5-31.
    10. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    11. Ball, Laurence & Carvalho, Carlos & Evans, Christopher & Antonio Ricci, Luca, 2024. "Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2016. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 12, pages 19-42.
    13. repec:wbk:wbpubs:12103 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Georgios Antonios Sarantitis & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas, 2018. "A Network Analysis of the United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 173-193, February.
    15. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2020. "Should a central bank react to food inflation? Evidence from an estimated model for Chile," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 221-234.
    16. Belbute, José Manuel, 2013. "Is the Euro-Area core price index really more persistent than the food and energy price indexes?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 307-315.
    17. Jamie Armour, 2006. "An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures," Staff Working Papers 06-10, Bank of Canada.
    18. M. Carolina Grünwald N. & Enrique Orellana C., 2004. "Medidas Alternativas de Inflación Subyacente," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(1), pages 93-101, April.
    19. Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Ramachandran, M., 2007. "Core inflation for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 365-383, April.
    20. Gheorghe Savoiu, 2015. "A Secular Indicator of the Degree of Economic Development and Synthetic Evaluation of Population Well-Being Trends," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(4), pages 3-16, December.
    21. António Rua, 2015. "Revisiting the monthly coincident indicators of Banco de Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Faisal Saleem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbpgvpk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.