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Comparison of Bayesian Model Selection Criteria and Conditional Kolmogorov Test as Applied to Spot Asset Pricing Models

  • Xiangjin Shen

    ()

    (Rutgers University)

  • Hiroki Tsurumi

    ()

    (Rutgers University)

We compare Bayesian and sample theory model specification criteria. For the Bayesian criteria we use the deviance information criterion and the cumulative density of the mean squared errors of forecast. For the sample theory criterion we use the conditional Kolmogorov test. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain the Bayesian criteria and bootstrap sampling to obtain the conditional Kolmogorov test. Two non-nested models we consider are the CIR and Vasicek models for spot asset prices. Monte Carlo experiments show that the DIC performs better than the cumulative density of the mean squared errors of forecast and the CKT. According to the DIC and the mean squared errors of forecast, the CIR model explains the daily data on uncollateralized Japanese call rate from January 1 1990 to April 18 1996; but according to the CKT, neither the CIR nor Vasicek models explains the daily data.

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Paper provided by Rutgers University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 201126.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 07 Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:201126
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  1. Jiang, George J & Knight, John L, 2002. "Estimation of Continuous-Time Processes via the Empirical Characteristic Function," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 198-212, April.
  2. Pesaran, M H, 1974. "On the General Problem of Model Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 153-71, April.
  3. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-52, July.
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  7. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Bootstrap Conditional Distribution Tests In the Presence of Dynamic Misspecification," Departmental Working Papers 200311, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  8. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  9. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2008. "A Simulation-Based Specification Test for Diffusion Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 176-193, April.
  10. Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2000. "Consistent bootstrap tests of parametric regression functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 27-46, September.
  11. Pesaran, M. H. & Hall, A. D., 1988. "Tests of non-nested linear regression models subject to linear restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 341-348.
  12. Chen, Min & An, Hong Zhi, 1997. "A Kolmogorov-Smirnov type test for conditional heteroskedasticity in time series," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 321-331, May.
  13. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  14. Olivier Scaillet, 2005. "A Kolmogorov-Smirnov Type Test for Positive Quadrant Dependence," FAME Research Paper Series rp128, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
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