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Potential Impacts of the Planned Market Stability Reserve on Speculators’ Behavior in the EU Emissions Trading System

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Abstract

In early 2019, the market stability reserve (MSR), a volume-based regulatory regime for tackling the surplus in emission allowances (EUAs) in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), will enter into force. The MSR will take EUAs out of the market when the amount of banked and thus unused EUAs exceeds an upper threshold and will release EUAs into the market when the amount of banked EUAs falls under a lower threshold. Over the last years, the design of the MSR has been the topic of controversial discussion. Among other concerns, scientists are afraid that the MSR may increase price volatility and uncertainty, which in turn may enhance specula-tive activity. In this paper we analyze the effect of the MSR on the behavior of a speculator with market power. For this purpose, the interlinked electricity and carbon market is modeled with an open-source agent-based model, which is expanded by adding the banking behavior of the spec-ulator. The results indicate that with the MSR mechanism being active in the EU ETS, both speculative banking activity and speculator profit increase. We further test the hypothesis that the MSR mechanism itself could be used by a speculator to increase his returns, leading to the conclusion that while this is theoretically possible, it is unlikely to actually happen. The results obtained can help to understand future behavior of market participants in the EU ETS.

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  • Falcke, Florian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "Potential Impacts of the Planned Market Stability Reserve on Speculators’ Behavior in the EU Emissions Trading System," FCN Working Papers 9/2016, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2016_009
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    1. Richstein, Jörn C. & Chappin, Émile J.L. & de Vries, Laurens J., 2015. "The market (in-)stability reserve for EU carbon emission trading: Why it might fail and how to improve it," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-18.
    2. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1196 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Richstein, Jörn C. & Chappin, Emile J.L. & de Vries, Laurens J., 2014. "Cross-border electricity market effects due to price caps in an emission trading system: An agent-based approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 139-158.
    4. Malik, Arun S., 2002. "Further Results on Permit Markets with Market Power and Cheating," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 371-390, November.
    5. Makoto Tanaka and Yihsu Chen, 2012. "Emissions Trading in Forward and Spot Markets for Electricity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
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    1. Frieling, Julius & Madlener, Reinhard, 2017. "Fueling the US Economy: Energy as a Production Factor from the Great Depression until Today," FCN Working Papers 2/2017, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    2. Hendrik Schmitz & Reinhard Madlener, 2020. "Direct and Indirect Energy Rebound Effects in German Households: A Linearized Almost Ideal Demand System Approach," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(5), pages 89-118, September.
    3. Höwer, Daniel & Oberst, Christian A. & Madlener, Reinhard, 2017. "Regionalization Heuristic to Map Spatial Heterogeneity of Macroeconomic Impacts: The Case of the Green Energy Transition in NRW," FCN Working Papers 13/2017, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised 01 Feb 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global warming; Climate change mitigation; EU ETS; Speculation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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