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Analyse von Grenzkostenpreisen im Europaeischen Gasmarkt

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Abstract

Der An- und Verkauf von Erdgas an Grosshandelsmaerkten wird in einem zunehmend liberalisierten Gasmarkt auch in Kontinentaleuropa weiter an Bedeutung gewinnen. Die Preise an diesen Maerkten bilden sich aus Angebot und Nachfrage; wie in jeder netzgebundenen Industrie kommt der Infrastruktur und ihrer Verfuegbarkeit dabei jedoch eine wichtige Rolle zu. Mit Hilfe des Ergasinfrastruktur- und Dispatchmodells Tiger werden in dieser Arbeit Grenzkostenpreise fuer ausgewaehlte europaeische Handelspunkte geschaetzt. Die Grundlage dafuer bildet ein most-likely Szenario fuer die Entwicklung des europaeischen Gasmarktes bis zum Jahr 2018. Die aktuell in der Realitaet zu beobachtende hohe Korrelation der europaeischen Boersenpreise fuer Erdgas untereinander kann dabei mit dem Modell nachvollzogen werden. Getrieben durch die Entwicklung von Angebot und Nachfrage zeigt sich jedoch, dass signifikant unterschiedliche Grenzkostenpreise in Nordwest- und Zentraleuropa in der naechsten Dekade temporaer auftreten koennen. Grund dafuer sind Infrastrukturengpaesse in Zeiten hoher Nachfrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhoener, Caroline, 2008. "Analyse von Grenzkostenpreisen im Europaeischen Gasmarkt," EWI Working Papers 2008-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2008_005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robinson, Terry, 2007. "Have European gas prices converged?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2347-2351, April.
    2. Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "The Global Natural Gas Market: Will Transport Cost Reductions Lead to Lower Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-40.
    3. Frank Asche, Petter Osmundsen, Ragnar Tveteras, 2001. "Market integration for natural gas in Europe," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 16(4), pages 300-312.
    4. Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Erdgas; Europaeischer Gasmarkt; Erdgaspreise; Modellierung;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-
    • P42 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Productive Enterprises; Factor and Product Markets; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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