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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Fertilizer Prices, and Food Security: Evidence from Rice-Producing Economies in Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Ashok Mishra

    (Arizona State University)

  • Harold Glenn Valera

    (International Rice Research Institute)

  • Takashi Yamano

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Valerien Pede

    (International Rice Research Institute)

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of increased fertilizer prices under different scenarios on rice production, consumption, trade and prices. Using a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework, the simulation results show that a 30% to 100% increase in fertilizer prices would reduce rice yields by 0.45% to 1.33%, but increase world rice prices by 7% to 23% between 2022 and 2025. As the world market price for rice increases significantly, rice trade and rice consumption will decrease accordingly, estimated at 1.7% to 7.0% and 0.27% to 0.78%, respectively. The simulation results also show that retail prices for rice would increase significantly in all rice-consuming countries. The impact of higher fertilizer prices would vary widely in the major rice-producing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashok Mishra & Harold Glenn Valera & Takashi Yamano & Valerien Pede, 2024. "The Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Fertilizer Prices, and Food Security: Evidence from Rice-Producing Economies in Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 724, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0724
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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