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Central Asia's Economy: Mapping Future Prospects to 2015

Author

Listed:
  • J. Malcolm Dowling

    (Singapore Management University)

  • Ganeshan Wignaraja

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

The growth performance of small, landlocked Central Asian economies has been among the world's fastest since the 1990s due to high-priced commodities (including oil and natural gas), strategic location, reasonable infrastructure, and human capital. The short-term economic prospects of Central Asian economies appear bright but long-term prospects may be less certain with a growing divergence between oil exporters (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan) and non-oil exporters (Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan). This paper reviews their recent economic performance, projects key economic variables to 2015 against a constant global background, and discusses policy implications. Exploring various scenarios ("business as usual," "closing the gap," and "falling behind"), the paper highlights the importance of policies in determining the future development path of the Central Asian economies. The findings show that if these economies embrace policy reform, regional cooperation, and industrial competitiveness, then economic prosperity will continue to be enhanced.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Malcolm Dowling & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2006. "Central Asia's Economy: Mapping Future Prospects to 2015," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 80, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0080
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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