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Modelling and forecasting short-term electricity load: a two step methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Lacir J. Soares

    (Department of Electrical Engineering)

  • Marcelo Cunha Medeiros

    (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to develop a forecasting model of the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by an utility company located in the southeast of Brazil. A di®erent model is constructed for each hour of day, thus there are 24 di®erent models. Each model is based on a decomposition of the daily series of each hour in two components. The ¯rst component is purely deterministic and is related to trends, seasonality, and special days e®ect. The second one is stochastic and follows a linear autoregressive model. The multi-step forecasting performance of the proposed methodology is compared with a benchmark model and the results indicate that our proposal is a useful tool for electricity load forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Lacir J. Soares & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting short-term electricity load: a two step methodology," Textos para discussão 495, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:495
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

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    2. Palacio, Sebastián M., 2020. "Predicting collusive patterns in a liberalized electricity market with mandatory auctions of forward contracts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
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    6. Bakhat, Mohcine & Rosselló, Jaume, 2011. "Estimation of tourism-induced electricity consumption: The case study of Balearics Islands, Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 437-444, May.

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