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Modelling and forecasting short-term electricity load: a two step methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Lacir J. Soares

    (Department of Electrical Engineering)

  • Marcelo Cunha Medeiros

    (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to develop a forecasting model of the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by an utility company located in the southeast of Brazil. A di®erent model is constructed for each hour of day, thus there are 24 di®erent models. Each model is based on a decomposition of the daily series of each hour in two components. The ¯rst component is purely deterministic and is related to trends, seasonality, and special days e®ect. The second one is stochastic and follows a linear autoregressive model. The multi-step forecasting performance of the proposed methodology is compared with a benchmark model and the results indicate that our proposal is a useful tool for electricity load forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Lacir J. Soares & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting short-term electricity load: a two step methodology," Textos para discussão 495, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:495
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Soares, Lacir Jorge & Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2006. "Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 17-28.
    2. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & Mohcine Bakhat, 2009. "A new approach to estimating tourism-induced electricity consumption," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2009/6, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").
    3. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
    4. Dordonnat, V. & Koopman, S.J. & Ooms, M. & Dessertaine, A. & Collet, J., 2008. "An hourly periodic state space model for modelling French national electricity load," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 566-587.
    5. Bakhat, Mohcine & Rosselló, Jaume, 2011. "Estimation of tourism-induced electricity consumption: The case study of Balearics Islands, Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 437-444, May.
    6. Palacio, Sebastián M., 2020. "Predicting collusive patterns in a liberalized electricity market with mandatory auctions of forward contracts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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