IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rff/dpaper/dp-10-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evaluating “Cash-for-Clunkers”: Program Effect on Auto Sales, Jobs, and the Environment

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Shanjun

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Linn, Joshua

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Spiller, Elisheba

Abstract

We investigate the effects of “Cash for Clunkers”, a $3 billion economic stimulus program, on new vehicle sales, employment, gasoline consumption, and the environment. Using Canada as the control group in a difference-in-differences framework, we find that the program increased new vehicle sales by about 0.39 million during July and August of 2009, while the net increase reduced to 0.25 million from June to December. The difference suggests that, as intended, the program significantly shifted sales to July and August from other months. Nevertheless, the program would result in only 8.58 to 28.28 million tons of CO2 emission reductions, implying a cost per ton ranging from $91 to $301 even after accounting for the benefit of the program in reducing criteria pollutants. In addition, the program is estimated to have created 3,676 job-years in the auto assembly and parts industries from June to December of 2009. That effect decreased to 2,050 by May 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Shanjun & Linn, Joshua & Spiller, Elisheba, 2010. "Evaluating “Cash-for-Clunkers”: Program Effect on Auto Sales, Jobs, and the Environment," RFF Working Paper Series dp-10-39, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-10-39
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-10-39.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2008. "Using Tax Expenditures to Achieve Energy Policy Goals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 90-94, May.
    2. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    3. Sebastian Galiani & Paul Gertler & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2005. "Water for Life: The Impact of the Privatization of Water Services on Child Mortality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 83-120, February.
    4. Abrams Burton A & Parsons George R, 2009. "Is CARS a Clunker?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 6(8), pages 1-4, August.
    5. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    6. Jason Bram & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Jun), pages 59-78.
    7. Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2007. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-52.
    8. Nada Eissa & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 1996. "Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 605-637.
    9. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    10. Knittel, Christopher R, 2009. "The Implied Cost of Carbon Dioxide under the Cash for Clunkers," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt95b1c3t0, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    11. Nicholas Z. Muller & Robert Mendelsohn, 2009. "Efficient Pollution Regulation: Getting the Prices Right," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1714-1739, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark Hoekstra & Steven L. Puller & Jeremy West, 2017. "Cash for Corollas: When Stimulus Reduces Spending," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    2. Adam Copeland & James Kahn, 2013. "The Production Impact Of “Cash-For-Clunkers”: Implications For Stabilization Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 288-303, January.
    3. James M. Sallee, 2011. "The Taxation of Fuel Economy," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(1), pages 1-38.
    4. Chao Wei & Shanjun Li, 2014. "The Cost of Greening Stimulus: A Dynamic Discrete Choice Analysis of Vehicle Scrappage Programs," Working Papers 2014-12, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Shanjun & Linn, Joshua & Spiller, Elisheba, 2013. "Evaluating “Cash-for-Clunkers”: Program effects on auto sales and the environment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 175-193.
    2. Hatice Gökçe Karasoy Can & Çağlar Yüncüler, 2018. "The Explanatory Power and the Forecast Performance of Consumer Confidence Indices for Private Consumption Growth in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 2136-2152, July.
    3. Vosen, Simeon & Schmidt, Torsten, 2012. "A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on Internet search query data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(7), pages 683-687.
    4. Erik Kole & Liesbeth Noordegraaf-Eelens & Bas Vringer, 2019. "Cognitive Biases and Consumer Sentiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-031/I, Tinbergen Institute, revised 21 Mar 2023.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_033 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
    7. Patrick M. Crowley & Tony Schildt, 2012. "An Analysis of the Embedded Frequency Content of Macroeconomic Indicators and their Counterparts using the Hilbert-Huang Transform," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-31.
    8. Lenski, Shoshannah M. & Keoleian, Gregory A. & Moore, Michael R., 2013. "An assessment of two environmental and economic benefits of ‘Cash for Clunkers’," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 173-180.
    9. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2020. "Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 367-377.
    10. Shapiro, Adam Hale & Sudhof, Moritz & Wilson, Daniel J., 2022. "Measuring news sentiment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 221-243.
    11. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
    12. Byrne, Joseph P & Lorusso, Marco & Xu, Bing, 2017. "Oil Prices and Informational Frictions: The Time-Varying Impact of Fundamentals and Expectations," MPRA Paper 80668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2012. "The cross-country importance of global sentiments—evidence for smaller EU countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 245-264, September.
    14. Aneta M. Klopocka & Rumiana Gorska, 2021. "Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 874-898.
    15. Bengt Assarsson & Pär Österholm, 2015. "Do Swedish Consumer Confidence Indicators Do What They Are Intended to Do?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 61(4), pages 391-404.
    16. Ahmet Yağmur Ersoy & Metin Saygılı & Mustafa İlteriş Yılmaz & Mustafa Emre Uslu & İhsan Hakan Selvi, 2022. "Consumer Sentiment in Turkey, from Closure to the New Normal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    17. Giancarlo Bruno, 2014. "Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 37-52, February.
    18. Konstantinou, Panagiotis & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1629-1641, July.
    19. S. Heravi & J. Easaw & R. Golinelli, 2016. "Generalized State-Dependent Models: A Multivariate Approach," Working Papers wp1067, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    20. Hector H. Sandoval & Anita N. Walsh, 2021. "The role of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption, evidence from Florida," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 757-788, October.
    21. Saravanan Kesavan & Tarun Kushwaha & Vishal Gaur, 2016. "Do High and Low Inventory Turnover Retailers Respond Differently to Demand Shocks?," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 198-215, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CARS program; automobiles; employment; gasoline consumption; carbon dioxide emissions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-10-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Resources for the Future (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rffffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.