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The Effect of Climate Change on Wetlands and Waterfowl in Western Canada: Incorporating Cropping Decisions into a Bioeconomic Model

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  • Patrick Withey
  • G. Cornelis van Kooten

Abstract

We extend an earlier bioeconomic model of optimal duck harvest and wetland retention in the Prairie Pothole Region of Western Canada to include cropping decisions. Instead of a single state equation, the model has two state equations representing the population dynamics of ducks and the amount of wetlands. We use the model to estimate the impact of climate change on wetlands and waterfowl, including direct climate effects as well as land use change due to biofuel policies aimed at mitigating climate change. The model predicts that climate change will reduce wetlands by 47-56 percent from historic levels. Land use change is expected to reduce wetlands by 45 percent from historic levels, whereas direct climate effects will range from a reduction of 2-11 percent, depending on the future climate scenario. This result indicates that models that neglect the effect of land use change underestimate the effect of climate change on wetlands. Further, wetlands loss is geographically heterogeneous, with losses being the largest in Saskatchewan.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Withey & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2011. "The Effect of Climate Change on Wetlands and Waterfowl in Western Canada: Incorporating Cropping Decisions into a Bioeconomic Model," Working Papers 2011-06, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:rep:wpaper:2011-06
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    File URL: http://web.uvic.ca/~repa/publications/REPA%20working%20papers/WorkingPaper2011-06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brett G. Cortus & Scott R. Jeffrey & James R. Unterschultz & Peter C. Boxall, 2011. "The Economics of Wetland Drainage and Retention in Saskatchewan," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 59(1), pages 109-126, March.
    2. Luke Brander & Raymond Florax & Jan Vermaat, 2006. "The Empirics of Wetland Valuation: A Comprehensive Summary and a Meta-Analysis of the Literature," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(2), pages 223-250, February.
    3. G. Cornelis van Kooten & Patrick Withey & Linda Wong, 2011. "Bioeconomic Modeling of Wetlands and Waterfowl in Western Canada: Accounting for Amenity Values," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 59, pages 167-183, June.
    4. Léonard,Daniel & Long,Ngo van, 1992. "Optimal Control Theory and Static Optimization in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521331586, September.
    5. Woodward, Richard T. & Wui, Yong-Suhk, 2001. "The economic value of wetland services: a meta-analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 257-270, May.
    6. Hansen, LeRoy T., 2009. "The Viability of Creating Wetlands for the Sale of Carbon Offsets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 1-16, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Withey, Patrick & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2011. "The Effect of Climate Change on Land Use and Wetlands Conservation in Western Canada: An Application of Positive Mathematical Programming," Working Papers 107095, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bioeconomic modeling; wetland protection; wildlife management; climate change; biofuels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

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