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El Impulso Crediticio y el PBI en el Perú: 1992–2009

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  • Lahura, Erick

    () (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Vega, Hugo

    () (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

El presente trabajo realiza una evaluación empírica recursiva de la relación entre el crédito y el producto usando datos trimestrales de la economía peruana para el período 1992 – 2009. Dada la naturaleza de las series, el análisis econométrico se basa en la estimación de un modelo vectorial de corrección de errores (modelo VEC o VECM) a partir del cual se establece la existencia de una relación dinámica entre la tasa de crecimiento del producto y el “impulso crediticio”, este último definido como el cambio en la tasa de crecimiento del crédito. Los resultados muestran que el impulso crediticio en soles contiene información relevante para predecir la tasa de crecimiento del producto en el corto plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Lahura, Erick & Vega, Hugo, 2011. "El Impulso Crediticio y el PBI en el Perú: 1992–2009," Working Papers 2011-001, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2011-001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Michael Biggs & Thomas Mayer & Andreas Pick, 2009. "Credit and economic recovery," DNB Working Papers 218, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
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