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Monetary Transmission and the Yield Curve in a Small Open Economy

  • Mariano Kulish

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Daniel Rees

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Long-term nominal interest rates in a number of inflation-targeting small open economies have tended to be highly correlated with those of the United States. This observation has recently lent support to the view that the long end of the yield curve is determined abroad. We set up and estimate a micro-founded two-block small open economy model to study the co-movement of long-term nominal interest rates of different currencies. The expectations hypothesis together with uncovered interest rate parity, which both hold in our model, can account for much of the co-movement of interest rates observed in the data.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2008-03.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2008-03
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  1. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno & Geert Bekaert, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Faculty Working Papers 04/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  2. David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the Conundrum," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 293-329.
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  5. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December.
  6. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02.
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  8. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 10309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2006. "Can Structural Small Open Economy Models Account For The Influence Of Foreign Disturbances?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  10. Kristoffer Nimark, 2007. "A Structural Model of Australia as a Small Open Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  11. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  12. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  13. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "A Bayesian Look at the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 313-382 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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