IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qmw/qmwecw/822.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Revealed preferences over risk and uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Polisson

    (University of St Andrews)

  • John K.-H. Quah

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Ludovic Renou

    (Queen Mary University of London)

Abstract

We develop a nonparametric procedure, called the lattice method, for testing the consistency of contingent consumption data with a broad class of models of choice under risk and under uncertainty. Our method allows for risk loving and elation seeking behavior and can be used to calculate, via Afriat’s efficiency index, the magnitude of violations from a particular model of choice. We evaluate the performance of different models (including expected utility, disappointment aversion, rank dependent utility, mean-variance utility, and stochastically monotone utility) in the data collected by Choi et al. (2007), in terms of pass rates, power, and predictive success.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Polisson & John K.-H. Quah & Ludovic Renou, 2017. "Revealed preferences over risk and uncertainty," Working Papers 822, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:822
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/sef/media/econ/research/workingpapers/2017/items/wp822.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Varian, Hal R, 1982. "The Nonparametric Approach to Demand Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 945-973, July.
    2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    3. Varian, Hal R., 1990. "Goodness-of-fit in optimizing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1-2), pages 125-140.
    4. Varian, Hal R, 1988. "Estimating Risk Aversion from Arrow-Debreu Portfolio Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 973-979, July.
    5. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    6. Hal R. Varian, 1983. "Non-parametric Tests of Consumer Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 99-110.
    7. Selten, Reinhard, 1991. "Properties of a measure of predictive success," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-167, April.
    8. Hiroki Nishimura & Efe A. Ok & John K.-H. Quah, 2017. "A Comprehensive Approach to Revealed Preference Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1239-1263, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hiroki Nishimura & Efe A. Ok & John K.-H. Quah, 2017. "A Comprehensive Approach to Revealed Preference Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1239-1263, April.
    2. Polisson, Matthew & Renou, Ludovic, 2016. "Afriat’s Theorem and Samuelson’s ‘Eternal Darkness’," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-40.
    3. Geoffroy de Clippel & Kareen Rozen, 2020. "Relaxed Optimization: e-Rationalizability and the FOC-Departure Index in Consumer Theory," Working Papers 2020-07, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    4. Cesar Martinelli & Mikhail Freer, 2016. "General Revealed Preferences," Working Papers 1059, George Mason University, Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science, revised Jun 2016.
    5. Lanier, Joshua & Miao, Bin & Quah, John & Zhong, Songfa, 2018. "Intertemporal Consumption with Risk: A Revealed Preference Analysis," MPRA Paper 86263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Matthew Polisson, 2018. "A Lattice Test for Additive Separability," Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics and Finance 201801, School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews.
    7. Mikhail Freer & Cesar Martinelli, 2018. "A Functional Approach to Revealed Preference," Working Papers ECARES 2018-29, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Marco Castillo & David L. Dickinson & Ragan Petrie, 2017. "Sleepiness, choice consistency, and risk preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 82(1), pages 41-73, January.
    9. Mikhail Freer & Cesar Martinelli, 2018. "A Functional Approach to Revealed Preference," Working Papers 1070, George Mason University, Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science.
    10. Federico Echenique, 2019. "New developments in revealed preference theory: decisions under risk, uncertainty, and intertemporal choice," Papers 1908.07561, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    11. Leandro Carvalho & Arna Olafsson & Dan Silverman, 2019. "Misfortune and Mistake: The Financial Conditions and Decision-making Ability of High-cost Loan Borrowers," NBER Working Papers 26328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Demuynck, Thomas & Hjertstrand, Per, 2019. "Samuelson's Approach to Revealed Preference Theory: Some Recent Advances," Working Paper Series 1274, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    13. Stefania Minardi & Andrei Savochkin, 2017. "Characterizations of Smooth Ambiguity Based on Continuous and Discrete Data," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 42(1), pages 167-178, January.
    14. Kubler, Felix & Selden, Larry & Wei, Xiao, 2020. "Incomplete market demand tests for Kreps-Porteus-Selden preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    expected utility; rank dependent utility; disappointment aversion; Bronars power; predictive success; generalized axiom of revealed preference; first order stochastic dominance; mean-variance utility; Afriat’s efficiency index;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:822. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nicholas Owen) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Nicholas Owen to update the entry or send us the correct email address. General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deqmwuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.