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The Pension Traps of Northern Cyprus

Author

Listed:
  • Hasan U. Altiok

    (Eastern Mediterranean University, Cyprus)

  • Glenn Jenkins

    (Queen's University, Canada and Eastern Mediterranean University, Cyprus
    Queen's University, Kingston, Canada)

Abstract

This paper reviews how the Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) Civil Service and Social Security pension systems in North Cyprus enabled policy makers to make promises to the Turkish Cypriot residents to retain them on the Island following a long protracted civil war. Unfortunately, the success of this policy has created a relatively huge unfunded pension liability that is becoming an increasingly heavier burden on both the labor force and the general taxpayer. Estimates are presented here of the difference between the present values of future contributions to be made and the pension benefits to be received by those currently retired and those who are contribution now but will retire in the future. The analysis covers the period from 2009 until the last person now contributing to these systems first retires and then dies. Various policy reform options are also examined in this study. The estimated unfunded liability of these pension plans is found to be so large that none of the conventional policy reforms used in the EU is effective in fixing the fiscal imbalances already created by past policies. Structural reforms such as moving towards private pension plans with tax incentives for contribution, and perhaps at the same time administering a high rate social insurance contribution system in lieu of a personal income tax seems to be more promising strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasan U. Altiok & Glenn Jenkins, "undated". "The Pension Traps of Northern Cyprus," Development Discussion Papers 2012-03, JDI Executive Programs.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:dpaper:220
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hasan Altiok & Glenn Jenkins, 2013. "Social security generosity, budgetary deficits and reforms in North Cyprus," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 218-235.
    2. Altiok, Hasan U. & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2013. "The fiscal burden of the legacy of the civil service pension systems in northern Cyprus," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 92-110, January.
    3. Jeffrey R. Brown & Robert Clark & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "The Economics of State and Local Public Pensions," NBER Working Papers 16792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bernardi, Luigi & Barreix, Alberto & Marenzi, Anna & Profeta, Paola, 2007. "Tax systems and tax reforms in Latin America: country studies," MPRA Paper 5223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jeffrey R. Brown & Robert L. Clark, 2011. "The Economics of State and Local Pensions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brow11-1, March.
    6. Mustafa Besim & Glenn Jenkins, 2005. "Tax compliance: when do employees behave like the self-employed?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1201-1208.
    7. Monika Queisser & Edward Whitehouse, 2006. "Neutral or Fair?: Actuarial Concepts and Pension-System Design," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 40, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Amin Sokhanvar & Glenn P. Jenkins & Hasan Ulas Altiok, 2019. "The Political Economy of the Taxation of Individuals in North Cyprus," Development Discussion Papers 2019-01, JDI Executive Programs.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pay-as-you-go; social security; pension liabilities; reforms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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