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COVID-19 and Endogenous Public Avoidance: Insights from an Economic Model


  • Wisarut Suwanprasert


In this paper, I study the transmission of COVID-19 in the dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model that allows individuals to optimally choose their public avoidance actions in response to the COVID-19 risk. I allow for heterogeneity in infection rates across age groups and structurally estimate the parameters to match the daily pattern of new cases and the ratio of patients by age group. Even in the absence of intervention, the elderly,

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  • Wisarut Suwanprasert, 2020. "COVID-19 and Endogenous Public Avoidance: Insights from an Economic Model," PIER Discussion Papers 128, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:pui:dpaper:128

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1997. "Disease Eradication: Private versus Public Vaccination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 222-230, March.
    2. Timothy C Reluga, 2010. "Game Theory of Social Distancing in Response to an Epidemic," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(5), pages 1-9, May.
    3. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 549-573.
    4. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Behavioral issues


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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mehdi Feizi & Hassan F. Gholipour, 2021. "Globalization and the Outbreak of COVID-19: An Empirical Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-10, March.

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    More about this item


    COVID-19; Infectious Diseases; Economic Epidemiology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health


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