IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/w200813.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Empirical Evidence on the Behavior and Stabilizing Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Coutinho Pereira

Abstract

In this paper, standard SVAR tools and counterfactual simulation techniques are applied to study the behavior and countercyclical role of monetary and fiscal policies in the US. In order to set up the model properly, different issues raised by joint identification of monetary and fiscal policy shocks are addressed, in particular, the contemporaneous response of taxes to the federal funds rate. I conclude that the federal funds rate and taxes net of transfers have moved mostly for endogenous reasons and, in the latter case, this reflects automatic rather than discretionary policy. In contrast, government expenditure has been basically driven by exogenous forces. Further, I reach evidence that (automatic) fiscal policy has been the most important stabilizing force in the course of postwar recessions, surpassing the role of monetary policy, while both policies have contributed similarly to narrowing the output gap at early stages of the recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Coutinho Pereira, 2008. "Empirical Evidence on the Behavior and Stabilizing Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the US," Working Papers w200813, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp200813.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lara Wemans & Manuel Coutinho Pereira, 2013. "Output effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a structural VAR approach," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andres, Javier & Domenech, Rafael & Fatas, Antonio, 2008. "The stabilizing role of government size," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-593, February.
    2. Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing changes in the business cycle - evidence and causes," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 20 edited by Morten Balling, August.
    3. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    4. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "The Effects of Government Purchases Shocks: Review and Estimates for the EU," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 4-32, February.
    5. Enrique Alberola & José M. González Mínguez & Pablo Hernández de Cos & José M. Marqués, 2003. "How cyclical do cyclically-adjusted balances remain? An EU study," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 166(3), pages 151-181, September.
    6. Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Gerhard Reitschuler & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma, 2003. "The Fiscal Smile: The Effectiveness and Limits of Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Working Papers 2003/182, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Alena Kimakova, 2006. "Does globalization enhance the role of fiscal policy in economic stabilization?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 8(11), pages 1-11.
    8. Larch, Martin & Van den Noord, Paul & Jonung, Lars, 2010. "The stability and growth pact: lessons from the great recession," MPRA Paper 27900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2009. "On the effectiveness and limits of fiscal stabilizers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(9), pages 1079-1086.
    10. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl, 2009. "Automatic Stabilizers and Economic Crisis: US vs. Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2878, CESifo.
    12. Giorgio Motta & Patrizio Tirelli, 2012. "Optimal Simple Monetary and Fiscal Rules under Limited Asset Market Participation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1374, October.
    13. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Holmström, Bengt & Korkman, Sixten & Söderström, Hans Tson & Vihriälä, Vesa, . "Nordics in Global Crisis. Vulnerability and resilience," ETLA B, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 242, 01-2015.
    14. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    15. Irene Brunetti & Davide Fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2017. "Volatility in European regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 697-720, November.
    16. Andrea Colciago & Tiziano Ropele & V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 2008. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: are National Automatic Stabilizers Effective?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 591-610, August.
    17. Sigita Grundiza & Dainis Stikuts & Olegs Tkacevs, 2005. "Cyclically Adjusted Balance of Latvia's General Government Consolidated Budget," Working Papers 2005/05, Latvijas Banka.
    18. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy: Review and Estimates for the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 2948, CESifo.
    19. Holger Bonin & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2014. "Cyclically‐Neutral Generational Accounting," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 117-137, June.
    20. John A. Tatom, 2009. "The Limits Of Fiscal Policy," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(02), pages 14-19, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEE-NTD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.