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Effect of Social Contribution Evasion on Working Time Allocation: Theoretical Contribution in a Two sector Model

  • Marco Di Domizio

This paper proposes a contemporaneous smooth transition threshold autoregressive model (C-STAR) as a modification of the smooth transition threshold autoregressive model surveyed in Teräsvirta (1998), in which the regime weights depend on the ex ante probability that a latent regime-specific variable will exceed a threshold value. We argue that the contemporaneous model is well-suited to rational expectations applications (and pricing exercises), in that it does not require the initial regimes to be predetermined. We investigate the properties of the model and evaluate its finitesample maximum likelihood performance. We also propose a method to determine the number of regimes based on a modified Hansen (1992) procedure. Furthermore, we construct multiple-step ahead forecasts and evaluate the forecasting performance of the model. Finally, an empirical application of the short term interest rate yield is presented and discussed.

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Paper provided by D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy in its series Discussion Papers with number 16_2006.

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Date of creation: 15 Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:prt:dpaper:16_2006
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  1. Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andreoni, J. & Erard, B. & Feinstein, J., 1996. "Tax Compliance," Working papers 9610r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. Schneider, Friedrich, 2002. "The Size and Development of the Shadow Economies of 22 Transition and 21 OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 514, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  5. Carillo, Maria Rosaria & Pugno, Maurizio, 2004. "The underground economy and underdevelopment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 257-279, September.
  6. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  7. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
  8. Braun, Juan & Loayza, Norman V., 1994. "Taxation, public services, and the informal sector in a model of endogenous growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1334, The World Bank.
  9. Peacock, Alan & Shaw, G K, 1982. "Tax Evasion and Tax Revenue Loss," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 37(2), pages 269-78.
  10. Lai, Ching-Chong & Chang, Wen-Ya, 1988. "Tax Evasion and Tax Collections: An Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 43(1), pages 138-46.
  11. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
  12. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Lin, Wen-Zhung & Yang, C. C., 2001. "A dynamic portfolio choice model of tax evasion: Comparative statics of tax rates and its implication for economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1827-1840, November.
  14. Spence, Michael, 1976. "Product Selection, Fixed Costs, and Monopolistic Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 217-35, June.
  15. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
  16. Loayza, Norman A., 1997. "The economics of the informal sector : a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1727, The World Bank.
  17. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-84, August.
  18. Ricketts, Martin, 1984. "On the Simple Macroeconomics of Tax Evasion: An Elaboration of the Peacock-Shaw Approach," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 39(3), pages 420-24.
  19. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
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