IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/202430.html

Role of Inflation and Exchange Rates in Shaping the Country's Food Security Landscape: Nigeria's Food Price Puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Goodness C. Aye

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Joseph Sarwarn Tarka University, Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria)

  • Prosper E. Edoja

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Delta State University, Abraka, Delta State, Nigeria)

  • Sarah Enwa

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Delta State University, Abraka, Delta State, Nigeria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

  • Emmanuel Eshoforen

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Delta State University, Abraka, Delta State, Nigeria)

Abstract

This study investigates the intricate roles of inflation and exchange rates in shaping Nigeria's food security landscape, particularly focusing on food price volatility and its economic implications. Utilizing time series data from 2000 to 2023, the research employs econometric techniques such as the Johansen co-integration test, VAR model, and GARCH methodology to explore long- and short-term relationships among inflation, exchange rates, and the prices of key food commodities, including maize, rice, cassava, and sorghum. Findings reveal significant longterm co-integrating relationships, highlighting the influence of exchange rate fluctuations on food price volatility, with varied impacts across different commodities. While inflation also affects prices, its short-term impact appears inconsistent. The study further identifies volatility clustering in food prices, driven by past shocks, though the persistence of volatility is limited. Granger causality tests underscore directional influences, with inflation rates and some food price volatilities exhibiting predictive power over exchange rate fluctuations. These insights underscore the need for robust monetary and fiscal policies to stabilize exchange rates and mitigate the adverse effects of inflation, ensuring a more secure and sustainable food system in Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodness C. Aye & Prosper E. Edoja & Sarah Enwa & Rangan Gupta & Emmanuel Eshoforen, 2024. "Role of Inflation and Exchange Rates in Shaping the Country's Food Security Landscape: Nigeria's Food Price Puzzle," Working Papers 202430, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202430
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2020. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 124-136, January.
    2. Gert Peersman, 2022. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 85-100, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khwazi Magubane, 2025. "The Stability of the Financial Cycle: Insights from a Markov Switching Regression in South Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-30, February.
    2. Paul Atanda Orebiyi & Etim Essien Bassey & Michael Akpan Udofia & Blessing Friday Usanga, 2025. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Rice Output in Nigeria," African Journal of Commercial Studies, African Journal of Commercial Studies, vol. 6(4).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    2. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    3. Robin Braun & Ralf Brüggemann, 2017. "Identification of SVAR Models by Combining Sign Restrictions With External Instruments," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-07, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    4. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2024. "BVARs and stochastic volatility," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 3, pages 43-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Cai, Yifei & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    6. Martin T. Bohl & Niklas Humann & Pierre L. Siklos, 2026. "The Monetary Policy–Commodities Nexus: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 1050-1082, April.
    7. Huachen Li, 2023. "The Time‐Varying Response of Hours Worked to a Productivity Shock," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1907-1935, October.
    8. Zhu, Xiaoke & Yu, Xiaohua, 2025. "Food inflation and macroeconomic dynamics in the US: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Marko Mlikota & Dalibor Stevanovi'c, 2025. "Origins and Nature of Macroeconomic Instability in Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2512.20152, arXiv.org.
    10. Sarah Cheliout, 2020. "Belgium’s innovative capacity seen through the lens of patent data," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 25-63, december.
    11. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2024. "The macroeconomy as a random forest," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 401-421, April.
    12. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Alessandro Galesi & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2019. "Do SVARs with sign restrictions not identify unconventional monetary policy shocks?," Working Papers 1926, Banco de España.
    13. Hartwig, Benny, 2020. "Robust Inference in Time-Varying Structural VAR Models: The DC-Cholesky Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224528, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Wenting Liao & Jun Ma & Chengsi Zhang, 2023. "Identifying exchange rate effects and spillovers of US monetary policy shocks in the presence of time‐varying instrument relevance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 989-1006, November.
    15. So-Won Choi & Eul-Bum Lee, 2022. "Contractor’s Risk Analysis of Engineering Procurement and Construction (EPC) Contracts Using Ontological Semantic Model and Bi-Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Technology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-32, June.
    16. Fructuoso Borrallo & Lucía Cuadro-Sáez & Matías Pacce & Isabel Sánchez, 2023. "Consumer food prices: recent developments in the euro area and Spain," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2023/Q2.
    17. Patricia Toledo & Roberto Duncan, 2024. "Forecasting food price inflation during global crises," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1087-1113, July.
    18. Florin Aliu & Jiří Kučera & Simona Hašková, 2023. "Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, March.
    19. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori & Gert Peersman, 2024. "Commodity Price Shocks and Global Cycles: Monetary Policy Matters," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0311, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    20. Patrick Bisciari & Hervé Godefroid & Wim Melyn & Ruben Schoonackers & Pierrick Stinglhamber & Luc Van Meensel, 2020. "Belgium’s fiscal framework: what is good and what could be better?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 64-98, december.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202430. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.