IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/98148.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Do Foreign Exchange Markets Say About Election Outcomes? A Comparison Between Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Hui, Hon Chung

Abstract

In this paper, Event Studies are conducted to examine the effects of political events on foreign exchange returns in Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines. The political events of interest in this paper cover the general elections in all three countries. Some of the salient findings are as follows. First, the 13th General Election in Malaysia led to a mostly negative response from the foreign exchange market, with a sharper than expected Ringgit depreciation. Second, the 14th Malaysian General Election elicited a rather positive reaction from the foreign exchange market – there was far less depreciation of the Ringgit than what was previously believed. Third, both the 2011 and 2015 General Elections in Singapore were followed by positive reactions from the market. Fourth, presidential elections in the Philippines produced contrasting results – the election of Benigno Aquino III was greeted with optimism, whereas his successor, Rodrigo Duterte received a less welcoming reception from the foreign exchange market, with the Philippine Peso depreciating more than the predicted amount in the market model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui, Hon Chung, 2019. "What Do Foreign Exchange Markets Say About Election Outcomes? A Comparison Between Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines," MPRA Paper 98148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98148
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98148/1/MPRA_paper_98148.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    general election; event studies; exchange rate; confidence;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.