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Chocs budgétaires et dynamique économique en Tunisie sous une approche de type VAR Structurel
[Budgetary shocks and economic dynamics in Tunisia under a structural VAR approach]

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  • Slimani, Slah

Abstract

To evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Tunisia, we use the SVAR approach based on the work of Blanchard and Perotti (2002). Our paper shows the short-term macroeconomic efficiency of a structural increase in budgetary expenditure in Tunisia with a budget multiplier close to 2.7%, in line with the Keynesians models. However, the estimated effect of a structural increase in tax revenues on activity is non-Keynesian (increase in the level of economic activity). This is explained by the presence of the voracity effect in the case of the Tunisian economy. Thus, a structural shock in tax revenues leads to a rapid and immediate adjustment of budgetary expenditure, which neutralizes the recessionary effect of the tax increase on economic activity in Tunisia.

Suggested Citation

  • Slimani, Slah, 2017. "Chocs budgétaires et dynamique économique en Tunisie sous une approche de type VAR Structurel [Budgetary shocks and economic dynamics in Tunisia under a structural VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 81573, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81573
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/81573/1/MPRA_paper_81573.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Perotti, Roberto, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 168, European Central Bank.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 2002. "Peut-on recourir à la politique budgétaire ? Est-ce souhaitable ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 83(4), pages 7-24.
    4. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    5. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    9. Jordi Galí, 1992. "How Well Does The IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-738.
    10. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Politique budgétaire; SVAR; Chocs; dynamique économique; efficacité;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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