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Causality between Bank’s major activities and Economic Growth: Evidences from Pakistan

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  • Mushtaq, Saba

Abstract

Banking is an important sector of Pakistan’s economy. The two major activities perform by banks are saving and lending. More Deposit saved in banks and more credits provided by banks are considered to have positive impact on economic growth so the aim of this study is to investigate the fact. Johansen test of Co-integration and Granger Causality is employed by using time series data of Pakistan from 1961 to 2013. The results show that there is no co-integration or causal relationship between GDP growth and Deposits in Banks of Pakistan. However there is short run and long run causality running from GDP growth to bank’s lending activities. Hence Government and central bank should make policies by keeping this fact in consideration that bank’s two major activities that are saving and lending does not have impact on GDP growth however GDP growth affects bank’s lending activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mushtaq, Saba, 2016. "Causality between Bank’s major activities and Economic Growth: Evidences from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 69052, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:69052
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muhammad Tahir, 2008. "An Investigation of the Effectiveness of Financial Development in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 27-44, Jul-Dec.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sadeghi, Abdorasoul & Tayebi, Seyed Komail & Roudari, Soheil, 2023. "Financial markets, inflation and growth: The impact of monetary policy under different political structures," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 935-956.
    2. Shahid Iqbal & Abdul Qayyum Khan & Muhammad Yar Khan & Lamya Al-Aali, 2021. "The Dynamics of Financial Development, Government Quality, and Economic Growth in Different Groups of Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Md. Shabbir Alam & Mustafa Raza Rabbani & Mohammad Rumzi Tausif & Joji Abey, 2021. "Banks’ Performance and Economic Growth in India: A Panel Cointegration Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, March.
    4. Sadaf Majeed & Syed Faizan Iftikhar & Zeeshan Atiq, 2019. "Modeling the impact of banking sector credit on growth performance: An empirical evidence of credit to household and enterprise in Pakistan," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Zhang, Ying & Zhai, Ling & Sun, Haijia, 2019. "Does the level of financial leasing matter in the impact of bank lending on economic growth: Evidence from the global market (2006–2016)," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 352-359.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger Causality; Cointegration; Economic Growth; Bank deposits; Bank’s credit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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