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A numerical model of Philippine population growth: child policy, quantitative insights and challenges

Author

Listed:
  • Talabis, Dylan Antonio
  • Manay, Erick Justine
  • Babierra, Ariel
  • Flores, Jabez Joshua
  • Rabajante, Jomar

Abstract

The study investigates the effect of imposing an n-child policy by forecasting the population of the Philippines using a discrete age-structured compartmental model. Based on the results of the projection, a policy promoting a maximum of two children per couple leads to a transient stabilization (i.e., the population eventually declines after attaining zero-growth rate). A three-child policy may also lead to stabilization yet may converge beyond the calculated Verhulstian carrying capacity of approximately 200M. However, overshooting the carrying capacity can be resolved by increasing the available resources that can support the escalating population size. A child policy dictating a maximum of four or more children per couple results to a similar population growth as the status quo due to the inherent declining birth rate. With the declining birth rate trend in the Philippines, population stabilization is realizable even without implementing a child policy but only after 100 years. Furthermore, this study estimated the future age structure and the resultant GDP per capita income associated with each child policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Talabis, Dylan Antonio & Manay, Erick Justine & Babierra, Ariel & Flores, Jabez Joshua & Rabajante, Jomar, 2013. "A numerical model of Philippine population growth: child policy, quantitative insights and challenges," MPRA Paper 54768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54768
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/54768/1/MPRA_paper_54768.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demography; population projection; child policy; zero growth; economy; logistic; carrying capacity; age-structured model; Philippines;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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