The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Thailand's Exports to the United States and Japan under the Recent Float
This paper investigates whether the real exchange rate uncertainty depresses Thailand’s exports to the United States and Japan and thus causes the trade balances to deteriorate under the floating exchange rate regime. Monthly data from July 1997 to December 2007 are utilized. Industrial production indexes are used as proxies of real income of the two major trading partners. The results from bounds testing for cointegration show that the variables in the export demand are cointegrated, and the Marshall-Lerner condition still holds in the case of United States. Real exchange rate volatility generated by the ARCH(1) process as a measure of uncertainty has a negative effect on exports to Japan, but has no effect on exports to the United States. However, total exports can be harmed by real exchange rate uncertainty for exports to Japan.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in NIDA Development Journal 2.50(2010): pp. 1-18|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
- Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
- Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- WenShwo Fang & Stephen Miller, 2007.
"Exchange rate depreciation and exports: the case of Singapore revisited,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 273-277.
- WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Exchange rate depreciation and exports: The case of Singapore revisited," Working papers 2004-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Stilianos Fountas & Kyriacos Aristotelous, 1998.
"Has the European Monetary System Led to More Exports? Evidence from Four European Union Countries,"
31, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 1998.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 1999. "Has the European Monetary System led to more exports? Evidence from four European Union countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 357-363, March.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Choudhry, Taufiq, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-71, March.
- Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May.
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45030. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.