Breakdowns and revivals: the long-run relationship between the stock market and real economic activity in the G-7 countries
Using monthly observations of industrial production and stock market indices from January 1961 to May 2012, we analyse the long-run relationship between the stock markets and real economic activity in the G-7 countries. In particular, this analysis uses the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach with the leveraged bootstrap methodology that was proposed by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006). Our results indicate that although the expected long-run relationship holds for most of the G-7 countries, a break in this relationship occurred in the 1980s, followed by a subsequent revival after 2001.
|Date of creation:||17 Dec 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
- Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2009.
"Have Structural Changes Eliminated the Out-of-Sample Ability of Financial Variables To Forecast Real Activity After the Mid-1980s? Evidence From the Canadian Economy,"
0910, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
- Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2012. "Have structural changes eliminated the out-of-sample ability of financial variables to forecast real activity after the mid-1980s? Evidence from the Canadian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3965-3985, October.
- Schwert, G William, 1990.
" Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-57, September.
- G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1997. "A threshold autoregressive analysis of stock returns and real economic activity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 167-179.
- Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2010.
"Looking far in the past: revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests,"
Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 743-766, June.
- Ekaterini Panopoulou & N. Pittis & S. Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past:Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1660306, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
- Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past: Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp134, IIIS.
- Canova, Fabio & de Nicolò, Gianni, 1997.
"Stock Returns, Term Structure, Inflation and Real Activity: An International Perspective,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Canova, Fabio & Nicol , Gianni De, 2000. "Stock Returns, Term Structure, Inflation, And Real Activity: An International Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 343-372, September.
- Fabio Canova & Gianni de Nicolo, 1997. "Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective," Economics Working Papers 203, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- A. Hatemi-J, 2003. "A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 135-137.
- Mathias Binswanger, 2000. "Stock returns and real activity: is there still a connection?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 379-387.
- R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2006. "Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(13), pages 1489-1500.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- A. F. Darrat & R. N. Dickens, 1999. "On the interrelationships among real, monetary, and financial variables," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 289-293.
- Hassapis, Christis & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2002. "Investigating the links between growth and real stock price changes with empirical evidence from the G-7 economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 543-575.
- Annaliisa Kankainen & Sara Taskinen & Hannu Oja, 2007. "Tests of multinormality based on location vectors and scatter matrices," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 357-379, November.
- Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
- Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: a cointegration approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 229-245.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of a Modified Dickey-Fuller Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(3), pages 411-19, August.
- Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 237-252, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.