IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/3817.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Evaluation of Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Aggregates in Nigeria (1986- 2003)

Author

Listed:
  • Adebiyi, Michael Adebayo

Abstract

The paper investigates the impact of foreign exchange intervention in the Nigerian foreign exchange market using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach. Quarterly time series data spanning 1986:1 to 2003:4 are used and a number of statistical tools are employed to verify this hypothesis. The study examines stochastic characteristics of each time series by testing their stationarity using Phillip Perron (PP) test. This is followed by performing cointegration test using Johansen technique. The existence of co-integration motivates us to estimate the error correction model for broad money, M2. The overall finding from all the techniques employed is that foreign exchange intervention in Nigeria is sterilized because the cumulative aid, which constitute part of foreign exchange inflows, and net foreign assets variables, which are proxies for intervention, are not significant. Thus, paper concludes by recommending, among others, that the use of stock of external reserves to support the exchange rate through increased funding of the foreign exchange market should be encouraged.

Suggested Citation

  • Adebiyi, Michael Adebayo, 2007. "An Evaluation of Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Aggregates in Nigeria (1986- 2003)," MPRA Paper 3817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3817
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3817/1/MPRA_paper_3817.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 285-312, April.
    5. Dominguez, Kathryn Mary, 1990. "Market responses to coordinated central bank intervention," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-163, January.
    6. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    7. James Laurenceson & Joseph C.H. Chai, 2003. "Financial Reform and Economic Development in China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2714.
    8. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    9. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
    10. Simatele, Munacinga C H, 2004. "Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia," MPRA Paper 21575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    12. Kearney, Colm & MacDonald, Ronald, 1986. "Intervention and sterilisation under floating exchange rates: The UK 1973-1983," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 345-364, April.
    13. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey & Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Do asset-demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns? A six-currency test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 309-323, November.
    15. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
    16. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "On the effects of sterilized intervention : An analysis of weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-150, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Siba Dayyabu & Ahmad Azrin Adnan & Zunaidah Sulong, 2016. "Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Nigeria (1970-2013)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 279-287.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kiss M., Norbert, 2005. "A jegybanki devizapiaci intervenció hatékonysága. Nemzetközi tapasztalatok és elméleti megfontolások [Effectiveness of central-bank intervention on foreign-exchange markets. International experienc," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 846-872.
    3. Sweeney, Richard J., 2007. "Fed intervention, dollar appreciation, and systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 167-192, March.
    4. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    5. Abdul Rishad & Sanjeev Gupta & Akhil Sharma, 2021. "Official Intervention and Exchange Rate Determination: Evidence from India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(3), pages 357-379, September.
    6. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ahmed Raza ul MUSTAFA* & Mohammad NISHAT**, 2017. "ROLE OF SOCIAL PROTECTION IN POVERTY REDUCTION IN PAKISTAN: A Quantitative Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 67-88.
    8. Amjad Ali & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2013. "Disaggregated Import Demand Function: A Case Study of Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    9. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Bo-Yu & Tsai, Pei-Hui & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the impacts of a carbon tax on imported forest products—evidence from Taiwan," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 45-52.
    11. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 155-170.
    12. Chen, George S. & Yao, Yao & Malizard, Julien, 2017. "Does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out private domestic investment in China? The effect of entry mode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-419.
    13. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Defence Expenditures And Gdp In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-385.
    14. Rıza BAYRAK & Halim TATLI, 2016. "Short and long term analysis of some factors effecting youth unemployment in Turkey," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 229-242, Autumn.
    15. Pan, Lei & Mishra, Vinod, 2018. "Stock market development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 661-673.
    16. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Determining Pakistan's Financial Dependency: The Role of Financial Globalization and Corruption," MPRA Paper 116097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Simatele, Munacinga C H, 2004. "Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia," MPRA Paper 21575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Gulzar Ali & Said Zamin Shah & Ghulam Mustafa, 2019. "Testing the Reliability and Existence of IS-LM Model for Pakistan," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(2), pages 13-23, June.
    20. Jalil, Abdul & Wahid, Abu N. M. & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2010. "Financial Development and Growth: A Positive, Monotonic Relationship? Empirical Evidences from South Africa," MPRA Paper 27668, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nigeria; Foreign Exchange Intervention; Co-integration and Auto-regressive Distributed Lag;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3817. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.