Prevendo retornos de ações atrasvés de movimentos passados: uma modificação no Modelo de Grinblatt e Moskowitz
[Predicting stock returns through past movements: a modification of Grinblatt and Moskowitz Model]
The purpose of this paper is to present the Grinblatt and Moskowitz Model (2004), and make a modification to adapt for an emerging market, in this case to apply in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa), that presents some specifics characteristics and problems, common in financial models and time series. It was made a modification in the original model and applied to Brazilian Capital Markets. Some interesting results were found: the presence of downside risk and the presence of turbulence during the electoral process in 2002. This modification was significantly because it incorporated the dummy variable to electoral process and took off the benchmark variable, which presented some disturbance when applied to Brazilian database. The modification of the Grinblatt and Moskowitz Model (2004) showed better results than the original one. It suggests that the modification can incorporate some characteristics of emerging markets countries.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
- Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September.
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
- Jr., Newton C. A. da Costa & das Neves, Myrian B. Eiras, 2000. "Variáveis Fundamentalistas e os Retornos das Ações," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 54(1), January.
- Grinblatt, Mark & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2004. "Predicting stock price movements from past returns: the role of consistency and tax-loss selling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 541-579, March.
- Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Agnol, Ivana Cristina Queiroz Dall, 2003. "Retornos anormais e estratégias reversas," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 482, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.