IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/38128.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Prevendo retornos de ações atrasvés de movimentos passados: uma modificação no Modelo de Grinblatt e Moskowitz
[Predicting stock returns through past movements: a modification of Grinblatt and Moskowitz Model]

Author

Listed:
  • Lucena, Pierre
  • Figueiredo, Antonio Carlos

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present the Grinblatt and Moskowitz Model (2004), and make a modification to adapt for an emerging market, in this case to apply in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa), that presents some specifics characteristics and problems, common in financial models and time series. It was made a modification in the original model and applied to Brazilian Capital Markets. Some interesting results were found: the presence of downside risk and the presence of turbulence during the electoral process in 2002. This modification was significantly because it incorporated the dummy variable to electoral process and took off the benchmark variable, which presented some disturbance when applied to Brazilian database. The modification of the Grinblatt and Moskowitz Model (2004) showed better results than the original one. It suggests that the modification can incorporate some characteristics of emerging markets countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucena, Pierre & Figueiredo, Antonio Carlos, 2008. "Prevendo retornos de ações atrasvés de movimentos passados: uma modificação no Modelo de Grinblatt e Moskowitz
    [Predicting stock returns through past movements: a modification of Grinblatt and Mosk
    ," MPRA Paper 38128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38128/1/MPRA_paper_38128.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Agnol, Ivana Cristina Queiroz Dall, 2003. "Retornos anormais e estratégias reversas," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 482, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    2. Grinblatt, Mark & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2004. "Predicting stock price movements from past returns: the role of consistency and tax-loss selling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 541-579, March.
    3. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    4. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Jr., Newton C. A. da Costa & das Neves, Myrian B. Eiras, 2000. "Variáveis Fundamentalistas e os Retornos das Ações," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 54(1), January.
    7. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    8. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    BOVESPA; downside risk; Grinblatt and Moskowitz Model; market efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.