IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/48104.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estratégia Contrária e Efeito Liquidez no Brasil: Uma Análise Econométrica
[Opposite strategy and liquidity effect: an econometric analysis]

Author

Listed:
  • Saturnino, Odilon
  • Saturnino, Valéria
  • Gois de Oliveira, Marcos Roberto
  • Lucena, Pierre
  • Araújo, Luiz Fernando

Abstract

Considering the hypothesis of opposite strategy or overreaction in stock prices, this research deals with this type of the market’s anomaly through an econometric analysis, which aims to get more explanatory model of the overreaction in the Brazilian capital market. The procedure was to collect the data monthly closing price of shares traded on the Stock Exchange Sao Paulo - Bovespa, from January 1995 to December 2011, and then calculated their monthly returns in Microsoft Excel 2010, and organized the data. Since then, formed two portfolios - with the 20 who achieved the best performance in the year (winners) and the 20 with the worst performance in the same period (losers) - rebalanced each period, and analyzed their performance in the sixty months of According to several training periods (nine months a year and a half years and one year and nine months). Therefore, the period of training will the portfolios from 1995 to 2006, and analysis, from 1996 to 2011. The results are based on the differential return, calculated as the difference between the average return of the portfolio's average return winner and the loser portfolio in each month of the analysis. The main results obtained, both descriptive and econometric of ARIMA models and panel regression, show that it was significant to use the strategy of overreaction in Brazil, and this is explained by the low liquidity of the roles losers in your training period, which is explained by the liquidity index of negotiability.

Suggested Citation

  • Saturnino, Odilon & Saturnino, Valéria & Gois de Oliveira, Marcos Roberto & Lucena, Pierre & Araújo, Luiz Fernando, 2012. "Estratégia Contrária e Efeito Liquidez no Brasil: Uma Análise Econométrica [Opposite strategy and liquidity effect: an econometric analysis]," MPRA Paper 48104, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48104/1/MPRA_paper_48104.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Akiko Watanabe & Masahiro Watanabe, 2008. "Time-Varying Liquidity Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2449-2486, November.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    3. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    4. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Amit Goyal, 2006. "Liquidity and Autocorrelations in Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2365-2394, October.
    5. Chopra, Navin & Lakonishok, Josef & Ritter, Jay R., 1992. "Measuring abnormal performance : Do stocks overreact?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-268, April.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    8. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    10. Charles M.C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Price Momentum and Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2017-2069, October.
    11. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Agnol, Ivana Cristina Queiroz Dall, 2003. "Retornos anormais e estratégias reversas," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 482, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    12. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    2. Osman Kilic & Joseph M. Marks & Kiseok Nam, 2022. "Predictable asset price dynamics, risk-return tradeoff, and investor behavior," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 749-791, August.
    3. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    4. Jiang, George J. & Zhu, Kevin X., 2017. "Information Shocks and Short-Term Market Underreaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 43-64.
    5. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    6. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    7. Saturnino, Odilon & Saturnino, Valeria & Lucena, Pierre & Carmona, Charles & Araujo, Luiz Fernando, 2011. "Investimento em Valor Contrário no Brasil: Overreaction ou Efeito Tamanho? [Contrary Investment Value in Brazil: Overreaction or Size Effect?]," MPRA Paper 38106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lakatos, Máté, 2016. "A befektetői túlreagálás empirikus vizsgálata a Budapesti Értéktőzsdén [An empirical test for investor over-reaction on the Budapest stock exchange]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 762-786.
    9. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    10. Israel, Ronen & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2013. "The role of shorting, firm size, and time on market anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 275-301.
    11. Lu Zhang, 2019. "Q-factors and Investment CAPM," NBER Working Papers 26538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lucena, Pierre & Figueiredo, Antonio Carlos & Lachtermacher, Gerson, 2008. "Critérios de formação de carteiras de ativos através de hierarchical clusters [Criteria of portfolio formation of stocks through hierarchical clusters]," MPRA Paper 38105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    14. Stephen Foerster, 2011. "Double then Nothing: Why Stock Investments Relying on Simple Heuristics May Disappoint," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(2), pages 115-140, September.
    15. YalçIn, Atakan, 2008. "Gradual information diffusion and contrarian strategies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 579-604, August.
    16. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    17. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2017. "Wax and wane of the cross-sectional momentum and contrarian effects: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 397-407.
    18. Sonntag, Dominik, 2018. "Die Theorie der fairen geometrischen Rendite [The Theory of Fair Geometric Returns]," MPRA Paper 87082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Razvan Stefanescu & Ramona Dumitriu, 2016. "Contrarian and Momentum Profits during Periods of High Trading Volume preceded by Stock Prices Shocks," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 378-384.
    20. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    overreaction effect; liquidity; multifactor model; ARIMA models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.