IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/36872.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelación de los rendimientos bursátiles mexicanos mediante los modelos TGARCH y EGARCH: Un estudio econométrico para 30 acciones y el Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones
[Modeling Mexican stock returns with TGARCH and EGARCH models: An econometric study for 30 stocks and the Stock Market Index]

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo
  • Ruiz-Porras, Antonio

Abstract

We develop a comparative study using the TARCH and EGARCH non-linear econometric models. We use them to describe Mexican stock market returns. We model daily series of returns for 30 stocks and the Stock Market Index (IPC) for the period between December 7, 2005 and August 1, 2011. Most of the series show leverage effects. The results also suggest that the AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1) model describes properly the aggregated returns of the stock market (measured by the IPC). They also show that the AR(1)-TGARCH(1,1) and AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1) models fit 19 and 11 stock return series, respectively. Finally, the results show that the return mean (variance) has decreased (increased) since August 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2011. "Modelación de los rendimientos bursátiles mexicanos mediante los modelos TGARCH y EGARCH: Un estudio econométrico para 30 acciones y el Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones
    [Modeling Mexican stock retu
    ," MPRA Paper 36872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36872
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36872/1/MPRA_paper_36872.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duran-Vazquez, Rocio & Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2011. "Valuación de acciones mexicanas mediante los modelos de Ohlson y Ohlson-Beta para firmas con ciclos de corto y largo plazos: Un análisis de cointegración
      [Valuation of Mexican stocks with the Olhso
      ," MPRA Paper 33054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    4. Robert Engle, 2004. "Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 405-420, June.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    7. Bárbara Trejo & José Antonio Núñez & Arturo Lorenzo, 2006. "Distribución de los rendimientos del mercado mexicano accionario," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 21(1), pages 85-98.
    8. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    9. Fritz Breuss, 2011. "Global financial crisis as a phenomenon of stock market overshooting," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 131-152, February.
    10. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim & Russell, Jeffrey & Watson, Mark (ed.), 2010. "Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Robert Engle," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199549498.
    12. Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2010. "Globalización, ciclos económicos y crisis global, 2007-2010
      [Globalization, business cycles and global crisis, 2007-2010]
      ," MPRA Paper 23183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duran-Vazquez, Rocio & Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2013. "Un modelo GARCH con asimetria condicional autorregresiva para modelar series de tiempo: Una aplicacion para los rendimientos del Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la BMV
      [A GARCH model with autor
      ," MPRA Paper 46328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2014. "Un modelo TGARCH con una distribución t de Student asimétrica y las hipotesis de racionalidad de los inversionistas bursátiles en Latinoamérica
      [A TGARCH model with an asymmetric Student´s t distri
      ," MPRA Paper 53019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Durán-Vázquez, Rocio & Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2012. "Un modelo GARCH con asimetría condicional autorregresiva para modelar series de tiempo: Una aplicación para el Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones
      [A GARCH model with autorregresive conditional asymme
      ," MPRA Paper 42548, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TGARCH; EGARCH; Stock returns; Mexico; non linearity;

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36872. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.