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Analysing drivers of and barriers to the sustainable development: hidden economy and hidden migration


  • Albu, Lucian-Liviu
  • Ghizdeanu, Ion
  • Iorgulescu, Raluca


The actual global crisis seems to influence negatively the sustainable development in EU countries. At least partially the informal economy escapes from the official registered GDP and hidden migration from the official demographic statistics. This can affect in a significant way the measurement of sustainable development and consequently policies in this field. Coming from general accepted findings of the theory, we concentrate on evaluating the reasons of agents to be involved in hidden economy and estimating the size of this part of economy. Today, there are evidences of a tendency to extended hidden migration together with an increasing official migration usually from eastern EU members to western countries. In a sense, hidden migration could be in relation with informal economy. Using some indirect procedures, we try to estimate the size of hidden migration and its impact on the official side of economy and its potential growth in the future. The main application of the developed methodology is in case of Romania.

Suggested Citation

  • Albu, Lucian-Liviu & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Iorgulescu, Raluca, 2011. "Analysing drivers of and barriers to the sustainable development: hidden economy and hidden migration," MPRA Paper 32810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32810

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2007. "Estimating the Size of Underground Economy in Romania," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 070601, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    2. Lucian-Liviu ALBU, "undated". "A Model to Estimate Informal Economy at Regional Level: Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100002, EcoMod.
    3. Albu, Lucian Liviu & Kim, Byung Yeon & Duchene, Gerard, 2002. "AN ATTEMPT TO ESTIMATE THE SIZE OF INFORMAL ECONOMY BASED ON HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOUR MODELING (l)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 17-24, March.
    4. Albu, Lucian Liviu & Iorgulescu, Raluca & Stanica, Cristian, 2010. "Estimating Hidden Economy and Hidden Migration: The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 46-56, July.
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    More about this item


    informal income; inactive population; emigration potential; hidden migration;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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