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  • Albu, Lucian Liviu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, e-mail:

  • Kim, Byung Yeon

    (Department of Economics, University of Essex, Colchester, United Kingdom)

  • Duchene, Gerard

    (University of Paris l, ROSES, France)


Having in view the three main methods for the estimation of the informal economy's size, the study focuses in the first part on data and methodological problems, trying at the same time to outline a few behavioral aspects by using only simple simulation models. Thus, based on a 288-sample and using different types of computations, the authors describe the households' participation in informal activities as varying between 20.4% and 30.6%. In the second part of the article, some more sophisticated dynamic models to simulate very complicated types of household behavior relating to participation in secondary activities and in informal economy are presented. * (Paper prepared on the basis of research within two Phare ACE Programmes 1996 and 1998, respectively ("The informal economy in Romania" and "Household informal economy activities in candidate countries: size, determinants and implications for the enlargement - empirical evidence from Romania and Bulgaria"). The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the European Union's view).

Suggested Citation

  • Albu, Lucian Liviu & Kim, Byung Yeon & Duchene, Gerard, 2002. "AN ATTEMPT TO ESTIMATE THE SIZE OF INFORMAL ECONOMY BASED ON HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOUR MODELING (l)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 17-24, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2002:i:1:p:17-24

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2007. "Underground Economy And Fiscal Policies Modeling," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 071202, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucian-Liviu ALBU, "undated". "A Model to Estimate Informal Economy at Regional Level: Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100002, EcoMod.
    2. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model To Estimate Spatial Distribution Of Informal Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 111-124, December.
    3. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Ion GHIZDEANU & M─ârioara IORDAN, 2008. "Informal Economic Estimation Models at Macroeconomic Level. Some Theoretical and Methodologial Considerations," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(2), pages 177-190.
    4. Albu, Lucian Liviu & Iorgulescu, Raluca & Stanica, Cristian, 2010. "Estimating Hidden Economy and Hidden Migration: The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 46-56, July.
    5. Albu, Lucian-Liviu & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Iorgulescu, Raluca, 2011. "Analysing drivers of and barriers to the sustainable development: hidden economy and hidden migration," MPRA Paper 32810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Albu, Lucian-Liviu & Nicolae, Mariana, 2003. "Use of households survey data to estimate the size of the informal economy in Romania," MPRA Paper 14286, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    informal economy; estimation; household's behaviour;

    JEL classification:

    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements


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