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Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA

Author

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  • Kitov, Ivan
  • Kitov, Oleg
  • Dolinskaya, Svetlana

Abstract

Previously, a linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, π(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 (where A1 and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients), was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for the USA is characterized by A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a root mean square forecasting error (RMFSE) of 0.8% at a two-year horizon for the period between 1965 and 2002 (the best among other inflation forecasting models) and has a perfect parsimony - only one predictor. The relationship is tested for cointegration. Both variables are integrated of order one according to the presence of a unit root in the series and its absence in their first differences. Two methods of cointegration testing are applied - the Engle-Granger one based on the unit root test of the residuals including a variety of specification tests and the Johansen cointegration rank test based on the VAR representation. Both approaches demonstrate that the variables are cointegrated and the long-run equilibrium relation revealed in previous study holds. According to the Granger causality test, the labor force change is proved to be a weakly exogenous variable - a natural result considering the time lead and the existence of a cointegrating relation. VAR and VECM representations do not provide any significant improvement in RMSFE. There are numerous applications of the equation: from purely theoretical - a robust fundamental relation between macroeconomic and population variables, to a practical one - an accurate out-of-sample inflation forecasting at a two-year horizon and a long-term prediction based on labor force projections. The predictive power of the relationship is inversely proportional to the uncertainty of labor force estimates. Therefore, future inflation research programs should start from a significant improvement in the accuracy of labor force estimations

Suggested Citation

  • Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA," MPRA Paper 2734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2734
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries," MPRA Paper 14557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    3. Carl Chiarella & Shenhuai Gao, 2002. "Type I Spurious Regression in Econometrics," Working Paper Series 114, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oleg KITOV & Ivan KITOV, 2012. "Inflation And Unemployment In Switzerland: From 1970 To 2050," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(2(20)/ Su), pages 141-156.
    2. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "The anti-Phillips curve," MPRA Paper 13641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test," MPRA Paper 2736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Canada," MPRA Paper 5015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ).
    6. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2010. "Dynamics Of Unemployment And Inflation In Western Europe: Solution By The 1- D Boundary Elements Method," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 94-113.
    7. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting the price index for jewelry and jewelry products: 2009 to 2016," MPRA Paper 15875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2008. "Comprehensive Macro Ï¿½ Model For The Us Economy," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(4(6)_Wint).
    9. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan," MPRA Paper 5464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Oleg KITOV & Ivan KITOV, 2012. "A Win-Win Monetary Policy In Canada," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(6(18)/ Su), pages 160-176.
    11. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "PPI of durable and nondurable goods: 1985-2016," MPRA Paper 15874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Germany," MPRA Paper 5088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2011. "The Australian Phillips curve and more," Papers 1102.1851, arXiv.org.
    14. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting gold ores price," MPRA Paper 15873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "A fair price for motor fuel in the United States," MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; inflation; labor force; forecasting; USA; VAR; VECM;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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