Modeling share prices of banks and bankrupts
Share prices of financial companies from the S&P 500 list have been modeled by a linear function of consumer price indices in the USA. The Johansen and Engle-Granger tests for cointegration both demonstrated the presence of an equilibrium long-term relation between observed and predicted time series. Econometrically, the pricing concept is valid. For several companies, share prices are defined only by CPI readings in the past. Therefore, our empirical pricing model is a deterministic one. For a few companies, including Lehman Brothers, AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, negative share prices could be foreseen in May-September 2008. One might interpret the negative share prices as a sign of approaching bankruptcies.
|Date of creation:||13 Mar 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2008.
"Long-term linear trends in consumer price indices,"
6900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009.
"Sustainable trends in producer price indices,"
15194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2009. "Sustainable Trends In Producer Price Indices," Journal of Applied Research in Finance Bi-Annually, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(1), pages 43-51, June.
- David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001.
"Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
- Kitov, Ivan, 2009.
"Does economics need a scientific revolution?,"
14476, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil stock price," MPRA Paper 15334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "A fair price for motor fuel in the United States," MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.