ConocoPhillips' share price model revisited
Three years ago we found a statistically reliable link between ConocoPhillips' (NYSE: COP) stock price and the difference between the core and headline CPI in the United States. In this article, the original relationship is revisited with new data available since 2009. The agreement between the observed monthly closing price (adjusted for dividends and splits) and that predicted from the CPI difference is confirmed. The original quantitative link is validated. In order to improve the accuracy of the COP price prediction a series of advanced models is developed. The original set of two major CPIs is extended by smaller components of the headline CPIs (e.g. the CPIs of motor fuel and housing energy) and several PPIs (e.g. the PPIs of crude oil and coal) which may be inherently related to ConocoPhillips and other energy companies. These advanced models have demonstrated much lower modeling errors with better statistical properties. The earlier reported quasi-linear trend in the CPI difference is also revisited. This trend allows for an accurate prediction of the COP prices at a five to ten year horizon.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2009.
"Sustainable Trends In Producer Price Indices,"
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- Ivan O. Kitov, 2010. "Modelling Share Prices of Banks and Bankrupts," Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(1), pages 59-85, June.
- Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "A fair price for motor fuel in the United States," MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil stock price," MPRA Paper 15334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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