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Restricción de balanza de pagos y vulnerabilidad externa en la argentina de los noventa. Un análisis de caso

  • Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe
  • Matesanz Gómez, David

En el presente trabajo se aplica el modelo de restricción de balanza de pagos de Thirlwall a la economía argentina en el periodo 1968-2003 y en subperiodos seleccionados. Los objetivos centrales son dos. En primer lugar, a través de dicho modelo indagar en las causas del lento crecimiento económico en Argentina en dicho periodo y, en segundo lugar, en analizar las causas de la reciente crisis de 2002 a luz de los resultados obtenidos. Mediante técnicas econométricas de cointegración llegamos a la conclusión de que el modelo de restricción de balanza de pagos perrmite explicar los objetivos centrales propuestos. In this paper, we applied balance of payments constraint model by Thirlwall to the Argentine economy in 1968-2003 period. Central aims are two: first, to inquiry in the demand causes of the slow economic growth of the Argentine economy in the period and, second, to analyse demand factors of the last and deep crises in 2002. By using cointegration techniques we show that balance of payments constraint model permit us to explain our central goals in this work.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 210.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision: 2005
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:210
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  1. Pennelope Pacheco-Lopez & Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade liberalisation in Mexico: rhetoric and reality," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 141-167.
  2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  3. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
  5. A. P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Studies in Economics 1111, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  6. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  7. John S. L. McCombie, 1997. "On the Empirics of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 345-375, April.
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