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Restricción de balanza de pagos y vulnerabilidad externa en la argentina de los noventa. Un análisis de caso

Author

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  • Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe
  • Matesanz Gómez, David

Abstract

En el presente trabajo se aplica el modelo de restricción de balanza de pagos de Thirlwall a la economía argentina en el periodo 1968-2003 y en subperiodos seleccionados. Los objetivos centrales son dos. En primer lugar, a través de dicho modelo indagar en las causas del lento crecimiento económico en Argentina en dicho periodo y, en segundo lugar, en analizar las causas de la reciente crisis de 2002 a luz de los resultados obtenidos. Mediante técnicas econométricas de cointegración llegamos a la conclusión de que el modelo de restricción de balanza de pagos perrmite explicar los objetivos centrales propuestos. In this paper, we applied balance of payments constraint model by Thirlwall to the Argentine economy in 1968-2003 period. Central aims are two: first, to inquiry in the demand causes of the slow economic growth of the Argentine economy in the period and, second, to analyse demand factors of the last and deep crises in 2002. By using cointegration techniques we show that balance of payments constraint model permit us to explain our central goals in this work.

Suggested Citation

  • Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe & Matesanz Gómez, David, 2005. "Restricción de balanza de pagos y vulnerabilidad externa en la argentina de los noventa. Un análisis de caso," MPRA Paper 210, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:210
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/210/1/MPRA_paper_210.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. John S.L. McCombie, 1997. "On the Empirics of Balance-Of-Payments–Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 345-375, March.
    3. Pennelope Pacheco-Lopez & Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade liberalisation in Mexico: rhetoric and reality," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 141-167.
    4. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    5. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    6. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.
    7. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
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    Cited by:

    1. Arevilca Vasquez, Bismarck Javier & Risso Charquero, Adrian Winston, 2007. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: Evidence for Bolivia 1953-2002," MPRA Paper 5685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ochoa Jiménez, Diego, 2010. "Crecimiento Económico y Sector Externo en la Economía Ecuatoriana
      [Economic Growth and the External Sector in Ecuador’s Economy]
      ," MPRA Paper 40422, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    restricción de balanza de pagos; modelo de Thirlwall; cointegración;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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