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Empirical Evidence Of The Balance Of Payments Constrained Growth In Cuba. The Effects Of Comercial Regimes Since 1960

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  • Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe
  • Mañalich Gálvez, Isis
  • Matesanz Gómez, David

Abstract

This paper seeks to investigate whether the balance of payments has been a key determinant of the Cuban long-term economic growth during different commercial policy regimes spanning over the period 1960 to 2004. We focus here on built the impact of terms of trade movements into a specification of Thirlwall’s hypothesis. Cointegration multivariate tests for non-stationary series reveal that economic growth, exports of goods and services and terms of trade are driven by a common stochastic trend and finding support for an economic growth path constrained by the country own external demand position

Suggested Citation

  • Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe & Mañalich Gálvez, Isis & Matesanz Gómez, David, 2008. "Empirical Evidence Of The Balance Of Payments Constrained Growth In Cuba. The Effects Of Comercial Regimes Since 1960," MPRA Paper 6993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6993
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    3. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
    4. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8.
    5. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    6. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    7. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
    8. Wojciech W. Charemza & Derek F. Deadman, 1992. "New Directions In Econometric Practice," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 84.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Ramezan Hosseinzadeh, 2011. "Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence of Thirlwall’s Law in Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 2(2), pages 81-88.
    2. Juan Carlos Palacios Cívico, 2022. "Openness processes and new subjectivities: Analysis of the Cuban case," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(2), March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cuba; Thirlwall’s model and cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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