IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/19617.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling base money demand and inflation for the Turkish economy

Author

Listed:
  • Levent, Korap

Abstract

In this paper, a reserve money demand model is tried to be constructed for the Turkish economy. Using contemporaneous multivariate co-integration methodology for the investigation period 1987Q1-2007Q3 of the quarterly observations, we find that the real income elasticity of money demand is highly greater than unity which means that there exists an ongoing monetization process with regard to the increases in the real income in the economy. The most important alternative cost against the real money holdings seems to be the expected depreciation rate of the domestic currency against the exchange rate. Such a finding reveals the importance of currency substitution phenomenon dominated in the economy when the economic agents determine the motives of demand for monetary balances. Furthermore, a critical finding estimated in the paper is that domestic inflation has a weakly exogenous characteristic in the money demand variable space which requires no dynamic error correction model constructed on domestic inflation as a function of the excess money demand taken place under the money market disequilibrium conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Levent, Korap, 2008. "Modeling base money demand and inflation for the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 19617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19617
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19617/1/MPRA_paper_19617.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ayca Tekin-Koru & Erdal Ozmen, 2003. "Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 591-596.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Rudi Dornbusch, 2002. "A Primer on Emerging-Market Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 743-754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Melike Altinkemer, 2004. "Importance of Base Money Even When Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 0404, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Kibritçioğlu, Aykut & Rittenberg, Libby & Selçuk, Faruk & Akçay, O. Cevdet & Alper, C. Emre & Berument, M. Hakan & Dibooğlu, Selahattin & Erlat, Haluk & Ertuğrul, Ahmet & Malatyalı, N. Kamuran & Nas, , 2002. "Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey," EconStor Books, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 110203.
    6. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1999. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262.
    7. Akyuz, Yilmaz & Boratav, Korkut, 2003. "The Making of the Turkish Financial Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1549-1566, September.
    8. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Mackinnon, James G & Milbourne, Ross D, 1988. "Are Price Equations Really Money Demand Equations on Their Heads?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 295-305, October-D.
    11. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    12. C. Emre Alper & Murat Ucer, 1998. "Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A ''Random Walk'' Down the Past Decade," Working Papers 1998/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    14. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    15. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    17. Erdal Ozmen, 1998. "Is currency seigniorage exogenous for inflation tax in Turkey?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 545-552.
    18. Us, Vuslat, 2004. "Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: some prospects for the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1003-1013, December.
    19. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "Money demand, financial liberalization and currency substitution in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(5), pages 514-534, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zeren, Fatma & Korap, Levent, 2010. "A cost-based empirical model of the aggregate price determination for the Turkish economy: a multivariate cointegration approach," MPRA Paper 23655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cem Saatçioðlu & Levent Korap, 2007. "Turkish Money Demand, Revisited: Some Implications For Inflation And Currency Substitution Under Structural Breaks," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 107-124.
    3. Fatma Zeren & Levent Korap, 2010. "A Cost-based Empirical Model of the Aggregate Price Determination for the Turkish Economy: A Multivariate Cointegration Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(2), pages 173-188, June.
    4. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    5. Piotr Wdowiński, 2011. "Model monetarny kursu równowagi złoty/euro: analiza kointegracyjna," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 67-86.
    6. Korap, Levent, 2010. "Testing homogeneity for real income and prices in a money demand equation: the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 30086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.
    8. Korap, Levent, 2008. "Determinants of reserve money demand: a multivariate co-integrating approach," MPRA Paper 25525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Norman J. Morin, 2006. "Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Kim, Ki-ho, 2003. "Dollar exchange rate and stock price: evidence from multivariate cointegration and error correction model," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 301-313.
    12. Özgür Aslan & Levent Korap, 2007. "Testing Quantity Theory of Money for the Turkish Economy," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 1(2), pages 93-109.
    13. Chor Foon Tang, 2011. "An exploration of dynamic relationship between tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(1), pages 50-69, January.
    14. Levent KORAP & Metin YILDIRIM, 2012. "Testing the Lucas Critique for the Turkish Money Demand Function," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(318), pages 57-82.
    15. da Silva, Patricia Pereira & Moreno, Blanca & Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho, 2016. "Firm-specific impacts of CO2 prices on the stock market value of the Spanish power industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 492-501.
    16. Chandran, V.G.R. & Tang, Chor Foon, 2013. "The impacts of transport energy consumption, foreign direct investment and income on CO2 emissions in ASEAN-5 economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 445-453.
    17. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    18. Levent, Korap, 2006. "Seigniorage revenue and Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 20106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. H. Levent Korap & Ozgur Aslan, 2010. "Re-examination of the long-run purchasing power parity: further evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3559-3564.
    20. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience," Working papers 2008-49, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand ; Inflation ; Currency substitution ; Co-integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19617. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.