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Trade Collapse, Trade Relapse and Global Production Networks: Supply Chains in the Great Recession


  • Escaith, Hubert


Global supply chains reshaped international trade since the end 1980s. Their role in explaining the trade collapse that followed the financial crisis of September 2008 was determinant. Because production is internationally diversified, adverse external shocks affect firms not only through final demand, but also through a rupture in the flow of inputs received from their suppliers. The future of supply chain will also determine the alternative exit scenarios from the Great Recession; as a result of global rebalancing, they will probably be smaller and more regional. Left unchecked, these centripetal forces may lead to a deterioration of global governance and to deglobalization. The reshaping of global effective demand is of particular importance for the labour abundant lesser advanced developing countries that where relying on the strength of the global supply chains to attract productive investments. On the other hand, because trade in goods for processing inflated artificially some bilateral trade deficit, rebalancing them will prove easier in the short term, while the technical factors that made possible the internationalization of production will still promote further "flattening of the Earth" in the longer term

Suggested Citation

  • Escaith, Hubert, 2009. "Trade Collapse, Trade Relapse and Global Production Networks: Supply Chains in the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 18274, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18274

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2006. "The rise of offshoring: it's not wine for cloth anymore," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 59-102.
    2. Sébastien Miroudot & Alexandros Ragoussis, 2009. "Vertical Trade, Trade Costs and FDI," OECD Trade Policy Papers 89, OECD Publishing.
    3. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & David Khoudour-Castéras, 2009. "Economic Crisis and Global Supply Chains," Working Papers 2009-15, CEPII research center.
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2537 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2010. "International supply chains and trade elasticity in times of global crisis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    6. Escaith, Hubert, 2008. "Measuring trade in value added in the new industrial economy: statistical implications," MPRA Paper 14454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Guillaume Daudin & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2006. "Le commerce extérieur en valeur ajoutée," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 98(3), pages 129-165.
    8. Escaith, Hubert & Gonguet, Fabien, 2009. "International trade and real transmission channels of financial shocks in globalized production networks," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2009-06, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
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    Cited by:

    1. Byron Gangnes & Ari Van Assche, 2010. "Global Production Networks in Electronics and Intra-Asian Trade," LICOS Discussion Papers 25710, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    2. Kimura, Fukunari & Obashi, Ayako, 2011. "Production Networks in East Asia: What We Know So Far," ADBI Working Papers 320, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Emanuela Todeva & Ruslan Rakhmatullin, 2016. "Industry Global Value Chains, Connectivity and Regional Smart Specialisation in Europe. An Overview of Theoretical Approaches and Mapping Methodologies," JRC Working Papers JRC102801, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    4. Joseph F Francois & Julia Worz, 2011. "Structural Components of International Trade Growth 1995–2009," Chapters,in: Post-Crisis Growth and Integration in Europe, chapter 22 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Koopmann, Georg & Hoekstra, Ruth, 2010. "Aid for trade and the political economy of trade liberalization," HWWI Research Papers 2-22, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    6. Joseph F. Francois & Julia Wörz, 2011. "Shifts in International Trade and Value Added from 1995 to 2007: Insights into the Drivers of Growth," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 37-56.
    7. Ingo Barens & Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Andreas Röthig, 2010. "Kaldorian boom-bust cycles in the housing market," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 361-375.

    More about this item


    international trade; crisis; global supply chains; transmission channels; global rebalancing; trade and development;

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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