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Trade Collapse, Trade Relapse and Global Production Networks: Supply Chains in the Great Recession

  • Escaith, Hubert

Global supply chains reshaped international trade since the end 1980s and their role in the trade collapse that followed the financial crisis of September 2008 was determinant. Because production is now internationally diversified, adverse external shocks affect firms not only through final demand, but also through a rupture in the flow of inputs received from their suppliers. The future of supply chain determines also the alternative exit scenarios from the Great Recession; as a result of global rebalancing, they will probably be smaller and more regional. Left unchecked, these centripetal forces may lead to a deterioration of global governance and to deglobalization. The reshaping of global effective demand is of particular importance for the labour abundant lesser advanced developing countries that where relying on the strength of the global supply chains to attract productive investments. On the other hand, because trade in goods for processing inflated artificially some bilateral trade deficit, rebalancing them will prove easier in the short term, while the technical factors that made possible the internationalization of production will still promote further "flattening of the Earth" in the longer term.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18433.

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Date of creation: 28 Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18433
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  1. Guillaume Daudin & Paola Veroni & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2006. "Le commerce extérieur en valeur ajoutée," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2537, Sciences Po.
  2. Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2010. "International Supply Chains and Trade Elasticity in Times of Global Crisis," MPRA Paper 20478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2006. "The rise of offshoring: it's not wine for cloth anymore," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 59-102.
  4. Escaith, Hubert & Gonguet, Fabien, 2009. "International Trade and Real Transmission Channels of Financial Shocks in Globalized Production Networks," MPRA Paper 15558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Sébastien Miroudot & Alexandros Ragoussis, 2009. "Vertical Trade, Trade Costs and FDI," OECD Trade Policy Papers 89, OECD Publishing.
  6. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & David Khoudour-Castéras, 2009. "Economic Crisis and Global Supply Chains," Working Papers 2009-15, CEPII research center.
  7. Escaith, Hubert, 2008. "Measuring trade in value added in the new industrial economy: statistical implications," MPRA Paper 14454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2537 is not listed on IDEAS
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