Combining parametric and nonparametric approaches for more efficient time series prediction
We introduce a two-step procedure for more efficient nonparametric prediction of a strictly stationary process admitting an ARMA representation. The procedure is based on the estimation of the ARMA representation, followed by a nonparametric regression where the ARMA residuals are used as explanatory variables. Compared to standard nonparametric regression methods, the number of explanatory variables can be reduced because our approach exploits the linear dependence of the process. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality results for our estimator. A Monte Carlo study and an empirical application on stock market indices suggest that significant gains can be achieved with our approach.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Xu, Ke-Li & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2008.
"Adaptive estimation of autoregressive models with time-varying variances,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 265-280, January.
- Ke-Li Xu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2006. "Adaptive Estimation of Autoregressive Models with Time-Varying Variances," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1585R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Nov 2006.
- Ke-Li Xu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2006. "Adaptive Estimation of Autoregressive Models with Time-Varying Variances," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1585, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hall, Peter & Yatchew, Adonis, 2005. "Unified approach to testing functional hypotheses in semiparametric contexts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 225-252, August.
- Raymond J Carroll & Oliver Linton & Enno Mammen & Zhijie Xiao, 2002.
"More efficient kernel estimation in nonparametric regression with autocorrelated errors,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
2017, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Raymond J Carroll & Oliver Linton & Enno Mammen & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "More Efficient Kernel Estimation in Nonparametric Regression with Autocorrelated Errors," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 435, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Zhijie Xiao & Oliver Linton & Raymond J. Carroll & E. Mammen, 2002. "More Efficient Kernel Estimation in Nonparametric Regression with Autocorrelated Errors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1375, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Dinh Tuan, Pham, 1986. "The mixing property of bilinear and generalised random coefficient autoregressive models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 291-300, December.
- Gao, Jiti & Tong, Howell & Wolff, Rodney, 2002. "Model Specification Tests in Nonparametric Stochastic Regression Models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 324-359, November.
- Enno Mammen, .
"Comparing nonparametric versus parametric regression fits,"
Statistic und Oekonometrie
9205, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
- Hardle, W. & Mammen, E., 1990. "Comparing nonparametric versus parametric regression fits," CORE Discussion Papers 1990065, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Fan, Yanqin & Ullah, Aman, 1999. "Asymptotic Normality of a Combined Regression Estimator," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 191-240, November.
- Drost, F.C. & Klaasens, C.A.J. & Werker, B.J.M., 1994.
"Adaptive Estimation in Time Series Models,"
9488, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 1997.
"Estimating Weak Garch Representations,"
97-40, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Drost, F.C. & Klaassen, C.A.J. & Werker, B.J.M., 1997. "Adaptive estimation in time-series models," Other publications TiSEM aa253902-af93-4e1e-b974-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- repec:cep:stiecm:/2002/435 is not listed on IDEAS
- Carrasco, Marine & Chen, Xiaohong, 2002. "Mixing And Moment Properties Of Various Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 17-39, February.
- Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 1997. "Covariance Matrix Estimation for Estimators of Mixing Wold's Arma," Working Papers 97-19, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Liebscher E., 2001. "Estimation Of The Density And The Regression Function Under Mixing Conditions," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 9-26, January.
- Anton Schick & Wolfgang Wefelmeyer, 2004. "Root "n" consistent and optimal density estimators for moving average processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 31(1), pages 63-78.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16893. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.