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The revenue smoothing hypothesis in an ARIMA Framework: Evidence from the United States, in Claude Diebolt, Catherine Kyrtsou et al. (eds.), New Trends in Macroeconomics

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  • Gogas, Periklis
  • Serletis, Apostolos

Abstract

This paper tests Mankiw’s (1987) revenue-smoothing hypothesis, that the inflation rate moves one-for-one with the marginal tax rate in the long run, using the new average marginal tax rate series constructed by Stephenson (1998) and the long-horizon regression approach developed by Fisher and Seater (1993). It reports considerable evidence against revenue-smoothing.

Suggested Citation

  • Gogas, Periklis & Serletis, Apostolos, 2005. "The revenue smoothing hypothesis in an ARIMA Framework: Evidence from the United States, in Claude Diebolt, Catherine Kyrtsou et al. (eds.), New Trends in Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 1464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1464
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-415, June.
    5. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "Intertemporal Tax-Smoothing and the Government Budget Surplus: Canada and the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1033-1045, November.
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    7. Evans, J. Lynne & Amey, Michael C., 1996. "Seigniorage and tax smoothing: Testing the extended tax-smoothing model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 111-125.
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    9. Poterba, James M & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "Inflation and Taxation with Optimizing Governments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 1-18, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal seigniorage; Integration; Long-run derivative;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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