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Capital Tax Incidence: Fisherian Impressions from the Time Series

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  • Casey B. Mulligan

Abstract

This paper accepts for the sake of argument the hypothesis that much of the time series correlation between tax and profit rates is spurious, and shows how nonetheless time series for profit rates, tax rates, and consumption can be organized, compared and interpreted using Fisher's (1930) theory of consumption in order to understand the incidence of capital taxes. Capital taxation is associated with a wedge between anticipated aggregate consumption growth and capital rental rates, suggesting that in one way or another capital owner behavior adjusts in the direction needed for some passing' of the capital tax. Conversely, most of the medium and low frequency deviations between anticipated aggregate consumption growth and capital rental rates are associated with capital taxation, as implied by aggregate time-separable Fisherian consumption theories in which time preference, non-tax capital market distortions, aggregation biases, and other determinants of aggregate consumption growth vary little over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Casey B. Mulligan, 2003. "Capital Tax Incidence: Fisherian Impressions from the Time Series," NBER Working Papers 9916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9916
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    Cited by:

    1. Casey Mulligan, 2004. "What Do Aggregate Consumption Euler Equations Say About the Capital-Income Tax Burden?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 166-170, May.
    2. Lu, Shu-Shiuan, 2013. "The role of capital market efficiency in long-term growth: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 161-174.
    3. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 2005. "Neoclassical Models of Endogenous Growth: The Effects of Fiscal Policy, Innovation and Fluctuations," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 13-65, Elsevier.
    4. Casey B. Mulligan, 2004. "Robust Aggregate Implications of Stochastic Discount Factor Volatility," NBER Working Papers 10210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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