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Foreign Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: An Empirical Study Based on China’s Data

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Listed:
  • Liu, L.
  • Ni, Y.J

Abstract

The reform of exchange rate system in 2005 has settled down the floating exchange rate system with management in China. Until August this year, RMB/USD has appreciated about 16.65%. This paper measures the exchange market pressure (EMP) on RMB/USD, and use VAR model to analyze the relationship between EMP and domestic monetary policy . And from the results we find that the increase of China’s domestic interest rate of is the main cause of RMB pressure of appreciation, but the foreign interest rate has little effects on the pressure and it can affect the growth rate of China’s domestic credit. So,we deem that the theory of "ternary paradox" may not applicable to China, at least in the period of our investigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, L. & Ni, Y.J, 2009. "Foreign Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: An Empirical Study Based on China’s Data," MPRA Paper 14491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14491
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November.
    2. Weymark, Diana N, 1997. "Measuring the degree of exchange market intervention in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-79, February.
    3. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    4. Don E. Roper & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1980. "Optimal Exchange Market Intervention in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 296-309, May.
    5. Kim, Inchul, 1985. "Exchange Market Pressure in Korea: An Application of the Girton-Roper Monetary Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 258-263, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMP Monetary Policy Foreign Exchange Intervention VAR Model;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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