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پیش بینی نحوه اثرگذاری عوامل مؤثر بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با رویکرد مدل میانگین گیری پویا
[Predicting the effect of factors affecting the economic growth of Iran with the approach of dynamic averaging models]

Author

Listed:
  • Rahimi Kahkashi, Sanaz
  • Adeli, OmidAli
  • Maleki, Mohammad Hassan
  • Roudari, Soheil

Abstract

One of the most important goals of economic policymakers in every country is to achieve high economic growth. For this purpose, this study aims to identify the most important variables affecting Iran's economic growth in the period of 1360 - 1400 using the dynamic averaging model. The results showed that in Iran's economy, the variables of current government expenditures, tax revenues, income inequality, household consumption expenditures, and domestic investment are the most important variables affecting economic growth. Also, the results showed that the manner and probability of these variables influencing economic growth over time are not constant and are subject to exogenous impulses such as revolution, war, oil price shocks, applied economic policies, structural changes, and sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahimi Kahkashi, Sanaz & Adeli, OmidAli & Maleki, Mohammad Hassan & Roudari, Soheil, 2022. "پیش بینی نحوه اثرگذاری عوامل مؤثر بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با رویکرد مدل میانگین گیری پویا [Predicting the effect of factors affecting the economic growth of Iran with the approach of dynamic averaging," MPRA Paper 127009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 May 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:127009
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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