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La “animal” volatilidad de la economía argentina: misperceptions, expectativas frustradas y conflicto distributivo
[The “Animal” Volatility of the Argentine Economy: Misperceptions, Frustrated Expectations, and Distributional Conflict]

Author

Listed:
  • Gerchunoff, Pablo
  • Rapetti, Martin

Abstract

This article examines Argentina’s macroeconomic instability from two complementary perspectives. On the one hand, it revisits Daniel Heymann’s approach to expectation formation in unstable contexts and decision-making based on perceptions that may misperceive medium-term macroeconomic trends. On the other, it introduces our approach centered on “structural distributive conflict,” which emphasizes the tension between a social equilibrium —associated with the welfare aspirations of workers— and the macroeconomic equilibrium. The paper seeks to connect both approaches in interpreting Argentina’s economic volatility and its recurrent crises since the mid-20th century.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerchunoff, Pablo & Rapetti, Martin, 2025. "La “animal” volatilidad de la economía argentina: misperceptions, expectativas frustradas y conflicto distributivo [The “Animal” Volatility of the Argentine Economy: Misperceptions, Frustrated Expe," MPRA Paper 125730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:125730
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/125730/1/MPRA_paper_125730.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Heymann, 1994. "Sobre la interpretación de la cuenta corriente," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 31-59, January-J.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1986. "The Wage Price Spiral," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 543-565.
    5. Cardoso, Eliana A., 1981. "Food supply and inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 269-284, June.
    6. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
    7. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sebastian Galiani & Daniel Heymann & Mariano Tommasi, 2003. "Great Expectations and Hard Times: The Argentine Convertibility Plan," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 109-160.
    9. Gerchunoff, Pablo & Rapetti, Martín, 2016. "La economía argentina y su conflicto distributivo estructural (1930-2015)," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(330), pages .225-272, abril-jun.
    10. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    11. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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